Who Pays for the Peace
Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a tentative deal with the U.S. to end the war is signed, according to leaked copies of an interim agreement that officials said broadly matched the document. The accord, due to be signed Friday in Switzerland, would also allow Iran to sell its oil without restrictions and could bring at least $300 billion to rebuild after the war, all while the U.S. and its partners keep the terms tightly managed from above.
The leaked agreement says the U.S. would work to end all American and United Nations sanctions imposed on Tehran if a final agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program is reached. U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he was uncertain whether the signing would happen as planned, saying, "You never know with deals, do you? But you're going to find out pretty soon," while also saying he expects the "very strong" accord will be signed in Switzerland.
Trump also said in France, where he was attending a Group of Seven summit, "Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong," and added, "It's a memorandum of understanding, and if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs." The article said the U.S. and Israel went to war on Feb. 28 in part to prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon, although Trump's goals in the conflict had repeatedly shifted.
What the Apparatus Calls Stability
The interim deal would stop the fighting before that aim is secured and open a two-month period for nuclear negotiations. It would restore the status quo before the war by ending hostilities, restarting negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program and reopening the strait, which the article described as a crucial passage for the world's oil and natural gas and whose closure created a historic energy crisis.
The deal includes an end to the fighting in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. The article said Israel has maintained it will continue to defend itself and to occupy vast swaths of Lebanon, while Iran has said Israel must withdraw under the deal, though the leaked versions make no mention of withdrawal. The people living under these arrangements are left to absorb the consequences while armed states and their proxies haggle over borders, fuel routes, and who gets to claim victory.
A person briefed on the memorandum of understanding after it was signed and another who viewed a copy beforehand said it largely matched the text published by the Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, which reported details Tuesday. Two other officials in the Mideast said the versions published by Al Arabiya and Bloomberg broadly matched the final agreement. The White House and other American officials had not published the terms and did not immediately respond to questions. White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote online Wednesday after CNN published a leaked version of the deal that it "does not reflect the language of the actual" agreement, without elaborating. Iran also had not published an official version of the deal, and the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said Wednesday that Bloomberg's version had missing portions, without offering a full accounting.
Leverage, Sanctions, and the Price of Reopening
The U.S. agreement to immediately allow Iran to sell its oil freely and the offer to eventually lift all sanctions were described as major concessions that go beyond the terms of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Trump withdrew America from that pact in his first term, calling it the "worst deal ever." The accord likely will draw intense opposition in Washington and appears to be a major setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has come under criticism at home from the media, his opponents and even some allies as details emerge.
The deal would also provide Iran with at least $300 billion to rebuild after an intense U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has said Gulf Arab nations would invest that amount, but Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. would not contribute and that it was up to other countries if they wanted to invest. Some concessions, including the full lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets, would happen gradually and be linked to progress in the nuclear talks, according to officials from Pakistan, a key mediator. They said the U.S. would issue waivers to sanctions that allow Iran to sell oil freely during the 60-day talks.
The Islamic Republic's oil export revenues in 2024 were more than $46 billion. Its main buyer of oil, China, is believed to have bought at below-market prices because of its willingness to ignore the sanctions. Granting oil waivers at the start of the 60-day talks strips the U.S. of a major point of leverage. Only at the conclusion of the overall deal in 2015 were sanctions on Iran's oil lifted.
The interim deal also opens the door to ending all sanctions Iran faces from the U.S. and at the U.N., including those over Tehran's weapons programs and human rights abuses, though it says the schedule for that will be worked out later. The accord would also provide Iran with at least $300 billion to rebuild after the bombing campaign, and the money appears dependent on the progress of further negotiations. The deal provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed before the war began. Since then, Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat to vessels effectively shut the strait. The deal also says the U.S. will lift a blockade imposed on Iranian ports and that the strait will return to its prewar traffic levels in 30 days, while acknowledging Iranian mines may need to be destroyed.
The interim deal sets a 60-day window, which can be extended, to negotiate over limiting Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. promises not to make threats of military action under the current deal after two rounds of talks were interrupted by attacks. Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, though it has enough highly enriched uranium to build multiple atomic bombs, should it choose to do so, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the interim deal, Iran reiterates that it will never build a nuclear weapon, a promise it also made in the 2015 nuclear accord.