The United States appears poised to grant Iran immediate freedom to sell oil without restrictions and provide access to at least $300 billion in reconstruction funds under a leaked interim agreement set for signing Friday in Switzerland, raising questions about American leverage in upcoming nuclear negotiations. The concessions, described by officials as going beyond the terms of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, would take effect before Tehran's nuclear program is constrained.
President Donald Trump said Wednesday he was uncertain whether the signing would proceed as planned, telling reporters in France where he was attending a Group of Seven summit, "You never know with deals, do you? But you're going to find out pretty soon." Trump characterized the accord as "very strong" but added, "It's a memorandum of understanding, and if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs."
Major Concessions Before Nuclear Limits
The leaked agreement, which officials said broadly matched the final document, would allow Iran to immediately resume unrestricted oil sales once signed. The U.S. would issue waivers to sanctions during a 60-day negotiating period over Iran's nuclear program. This represents a significant departure from the 2015 nuclear accord, which only lifted oil sanctions after the deal's conclusion. Iran's oil export revenues exceeded $46 billion in 2024, with China as its primary buyer purchasing at below-market prices due to its willingness to ignore sanctions.
According to officials from Pakistan, a key mediator, the U.S. agreement to immediately allow free oil sales and eventually lift all sanctions goes beyond the 2015 deal that Trump withdrew from in his first term, calling it the "worst deal ever." Granting oil waivers at the start of talks strips the U.S. of major leverage before nuclear constraints are secured.
Reconstruction Funds and Sanctions Relief
The interim deal provides Iran with at least $300 billion to rebuild after an intense U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign. Vice President JD Vance has said Gulf Arab nations would invest that amount, though Trump said Wednesday the U.S. would not contribute and that it was up to other countries if they wanted to invest. Some concessions, including the full lifting of sanctions and release of frozen assets, would happen gradually and be linked to progress in nuclear talks, according to Pakistani officials.
The accord also opens the door to ending all sanctions Iran faces from the U.S. and United Nations, including those over Tehran's weapons programs and human rights abuses, though the schedule for that will be worked out later. A person briefed on the memorandum after it was signed and another who viewed a copy beforehand said it largely matched text published by Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya. Two other Mideast officials said versions published by Al Arabiya and Bloomberg broadly matched the final agreement.
Strait of Hormuz Reopening
The deal provides for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas traded once passed before the war that began less than 4 months ago. Iranian attacks on shipping and threats to vessels effectively shut the strait, creating what the agreement describes as a historic energy crisis. The U.S. will lift a blockade imposed on Iranian ports, and the strait will return to prewar traffic levels in 30 days, while acknowledging Iranian mines may need to be destroyed.
The interim deal would stop the fighting before the U.S. aim of preventing Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon is secured. The U.S. and Israel went to war on Feb. 28 in part to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, although Trump's goals in the conflict had repeatedly shifted. The deal sets a 60-day window, which can be extended, to negotiate over limiting Iran's nuclear program. Iran maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, though it has enough highly enriched uranium to build multiple atomic bombs, should it choose to do so, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Political Opposition Expected
The accord likely will draw intense opposition in Washington and appears to be a major setback for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has come under criticism at home from the media, his opponents and even some allies as details emerge. The deal includes an end to fighting in Lebanon between Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. Israel has maintained it will continue to defend itself and to occupy vast swaths of Lebanon, while Iran has said Israel must withdraw under the deal, though the leaked versions make no mention of withdrawal.
White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote online Wednesday after CNN published a leaked version that it "does not reflect the language of the actual" agreement, without elaborating. Iran also had not published an official version, and the semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said Wednesday that Bloomberg's version had missing portions, without offering a full accounting. The U.S. promises not to make threats of military action under the current deal after two rounds of talks were interrupted by attacks. In the interim deal, Iran reiterates that it will never build a nuclear weapon, a promise it also made in the 2015 nuclear accord.
Why This Matters:
The leaked agreement represents a fundamental shift in American negotiating strategy, providing Iran with immediate economic relief and reconstruction funds before nuclear constraints are implemented. By granting oil sale freedom at the outset of a 60-day negotiating window rather than as a final concession, the U.S. surrenders significant economic leverage that could compel Iranian compliance on nuclear limitations. The $300 billion reconstruction commitment, even if funded by Gulf states rather than American taxpayers, strengthens Iran's regional position while the Islamic Republic retains enough enriched uranium to build multiple atomic bombs according to international inspectors. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will restore global energy markets, but the sequence of concessions—economic benefits first, nuclear constraints later—reverses the pressure that might ensure Tehran's compliance. With intense Washington opposition expected and Israeli concerns mounting, the deal's structure raises questions about whether diplomatic concessions can secure verifiable limits on a nuclear program that Iran insists is peaceful but has advanced significantly during years of sanctions.