Iran-US Talks Stall as Civilians Pay for State Rivalry

Iranian officials say Tehran is prolonging talks with Washington to weaken Donald Trump politically before the November 3 midterm elections. At the same time, they’re preparing for renewed U.S. and Israeli attacks rather than a deal to end the war. Governments are weighing military threats and election calculations, while Iran faces crushed protests, rising prices and a sharply weakened currency.

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Tehran believed Trump was ready to resume attacks to break the stalemate. One official said, "Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," adding that the clerical establishment wouldn’t give Trump a political victory. Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said Iran was influencing the U.S. election "without taking any unlawful action" by prolonging talks.

The price of the stalemate

The war began in February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Iranian attacks, threatened and actual, have reduced ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a trickle. The strait is a vital global energy shipping route, and Iran has effectively closed it since the conflict began. A U.S. maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran's oil export revenues and worsened domestic economic difficulties.

The pressure falls on a population already facing a battered economy. Security forces killed thousands at the turn of the year as they crushed escalating anti-government protests. Annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, while the rial fell nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July. Iran's seaborne crude exports dropped to zero in the second week of September, down from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month, and remained there as of October 5, according to Vortexa.

Trump has said he expects oil prices to fall after the elections, but hasn't offered a detailed plan to end the war and reopen the strait. Iranian officials said a breakthrough before the elections was unlikely because Tehran wouldn’t make concessions it believed could benefit Trump politically. The U.S. president has said the United States won’t bomb Iran again before November 3; Iranian officials still expect bombing to resume sooner or later.

Negotiations under military threat

Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran's nuclear program on the table from the outset. Iran says the program is purely peaceful; Western powers allege it has military dimensions. Tehran says its conditions must be met before nuclear negotiations begin, and has offered no prospect of giving up its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Ministry and the White House didn’t respond to Reuters' requests for comment.

Iran's proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days under Iranian control if Washington lifted its maritime blockade, eased restrictions on Iranian oil exports, released frozen assets and ended hostilities on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the offer remained on the table and messages were being exchanged through mediators.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would retaliate against any U.S. military strike, calling the idea that Washington could attack without a response an "illusion." He said, "If our response is not stronger, it will certainly be equal." Baghaei also said Tehran remained prepared for another Israeli attack and was constantly assessing potential threats. Governments on both sides speak in military terms. Civilians face the consequences.

Diplomacy without trust

Iranian officials say attacks derailed earlier negotiations. An Israeli attack in June 2025 wrecked plans for a sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. The United States and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled, according to the article.

Baghaei said Iran hadn’t entered nuclear negotiations with Washington and rejected speculation that Tehran had softened its position. He described a recent U.S. message as "insufficient and incomplete" and said Washington needed to address Iran's demands before diplomatic efforts could move forward. He also called on the United Nations to address insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, blaming continued U.S. military actions. The appeal puts responsibility on an international institution even as the governments involved continue to bargain over blockades, military readiness and control of the waterway.

Leylaz said distrust extends beyond the current conflict, pointing to Washington's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018. "Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust," he said. "Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo."