Iran Braces for Renewed US-Israeli Attacks

In February, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Tehran says it’s preparing for renewed attacks, not a deal to end the war, and Iranian officials expect U.S. bombing to resume despite President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States won’t bomb Iran again before November 3.

Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Tehran believed Trump was ready to restart attacks to break the stalemate. One official said, “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war.” The official added, “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”

Iranian officials said Tehran has prolonged negotiations partly to weaken Trump politically before the U.S. midterm elections. Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said Iran was influencing the election “without taking any unlawful action” by extending talks. Officials said a breakthrough before the elections was unlikely: Tehran wouldn’t make concessions it believed could benefit Trump.

Strikes, blockade and the Strait of Hormuz

The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route Iran has effectively closed since the war began. Iranian attacks, threatened and actual, have cut traffic through the strait to a trickle. A U.S. maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iran’s oil export revenues and worsened domestic economic difficulties.

Iran’s proposal, conveyed through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days under Iranian control. Tehran made the offer conditional on Washington lifting its maritime blockade, easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table and that mediators were exchanging messages.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran would retaliate against any U.S. military strike, rejecting claims that Washington had asked Tehran not to respond. “If our response is not stronger, it will certainly be equal,” he said, calling the suggestion the United States could attack Iran without retaliation an “illusion.” Baghaei said Iran remained prepared for another Israeli attack and constantly assessed potential threats.

Nuclear talks remain stalled

Washington wants Iran’s nuclear program on the table from the outset, under pressure from Israel. Iran says its program is purely peaceful, while Western powers allege it has military dimensions. Tehran says conditions in its “seven-day plan” must be met before nuclear negotiations begin, and it’s offered no prospect of giving up its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

Baghaei said Iran hadn’t entered nuclear negotiations with Washington and rejected speculation that Tehran had softened its position. He described a recent U.S. message as “insufficient and incomplete” and said Iran had already communicated its position. Among Tehran’s seven demands, he cited lifting the U.S. naval blockade and ending hostilities on all fronts.

Iranian officials said distrust of Washington reflected attacks that derailed earlier negotiations. An Israeli attack in June 2025 disrupted plans for a sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman. The United States and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.

Economic pressure and diplomatic claims

The blockade has added to pressure on Iran’s economy. Annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, while the rial had fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July. Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September, down from an average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month. They remained there as of October 5, according to Vortexa.

Baghaei accused the United States of repeatedly violating commitments, including after its withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018. He said Iran would keep pursuing diplomacy if it could prevent an escalation, while prioritizing national interests and security through diplomacy or military defense. “If there is even the slightest possibility diplomacy can prevent an escalation of tensions, we must pursue that path,” he said.

Baghaei also called on the United Nations to address insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, which he blamed on U.S. actions. “The cause of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz is clear: the continuation of U.S. interventionist and aggressive actions,” he said. The White House and Iran’s Foreign Ministry didn’t respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.