Iran Stalls Talks as Strait Threats Keep War Risk High

Senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Tehran has deliberately prolonged talks with the United States to weaken Donald Trump politically before the November 3 midterm elections. Rather than pursue a deal to end the war, they said, Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and U.S. attacks. Tehran has offered no prospect of giving up its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy route where ship traffic has fallen to a trickle amid threatened and actual Iranian attacks.

One Iranian official said, "Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war." The official added, "The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory." Tehran analyst Saeed Leylaz said Iran was influencing the U.S. election "without taking any unlawful action" by prolonging negotiations.

The Strait as Leverage

The war began in February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. Since then, Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian attacks have sharply reduced shipping through the waterway. Trump says he expects oil prices to fall after the elections, but he hasn't offered a detailed plan to end the war or reopen the strait.

Iran's proposal, delivered through Qatari mediators, offered to reopen the strait within seven days under Iranian control. Tehran made that offer conditional on Washington lifting its maritime blockade, easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports, releasing frozen assets and ending hostilities on all fronts. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that the offer remained on the table and that mediators were exchanging messages.

A U.S. maritime blockade and trade sanctions have cut off Iranian oil export revenue and worsened domestic economic difficulties. Iran's seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September, down from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of the month. According to energy intelligence platform Vortexa, exports remained at zero as of October 5.

Nuclear Standoff and Military Threats

Under pressure from Israel, Washington wants Iran's decades-long nuclear program on the table from the outset. Iran says its program is purely peaceful; Western powers allege it has military dimensions. Tehran says its conditions in a "seven-day plan" must be met before nuclear negotiations begin. Officials said a breakthrough before the elections was unlikely: Iran wouldn't make concessions it believed could benefit Trump politically.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei warned that Iran would retaliate against any U.S. military strike. He rejected claims that Washington had messaged Tehran to ask it not to respond. At his weekly press conference, Baghaei called suggestions the United States could attack Iran without retaliation an "illusion." He said, "If our response is not stronger, it will certainly be equal," adding that the era of the United States attacking and withdrawing without consequences was over. His comments answered claims of a possible U.S. attack on Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang) in Iran.

Baghaei said Iran remained prepared for another Israeli attack and was not experiencing peace. Tehran constantly assesses potential threats, he said, and Iranian forces had learned from the past two years and stood prepared to repel an assault. Trump has said the United States won't bomb Iran again before November 3, but Iranian officials said Tehran still expected bombing to resume sooner or later.

Election Pressure and Regional Diplomacy

The conflict has helped push Trump's approval rating to a record low. Polls indicate that Americans concerned about high gasoline prices may punish his Republican Party in the November 3 congressional elections. Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Iran's clerical establishment clearly wanted to hurt Trump politically. Tehran believes Trump is interested in regime change and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu's policy of seeking to bring down Iran's ruling establishment, Vatanka said.

Three Israeli officials said U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed Iran with Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to Israel on Monday, a week before a parliamentary election in which Netanyahu's position was at risk. An Israeli attack in June 2025 disrupted plans for a sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman, according to an Iranian official. The United States and Israel launched their war just after another round of talks ended, with further technical discussions scheduled.

Baghaei said Tehran had not entered nuclear negotiations with Washington and had no details to discuss with Russia or other countries. He described Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Tehran as part of consultations planned months earlier, covering bilateral relations and regional and international developments, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. Russia played an important role in negotiations leading to the 2015 nuclear agreement and continues to offer help reducing tensions, Baghaei said.

Iran's economic strain is deepening as negotiations drag on. Annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran, and the rial had fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since Washington reapplied its naval blockade in July. Thousands were killed at the turn of the year when security forces crushed escalating anti-government protests.

Baghaei accused the United States of repeatedly violating commitments, including after its withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement in 2018. Iran would continue pursuing diplomacy while protecting its interests through diplomacy or military defense, he said. "If there is even the slightest possibility diplomacy can prevent an escalation of tensions, we must pursue that path," he said.