Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps Navy said the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until US military actions end, while Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran is in no hurry to reopen it. Ordinary people get the bill either way. Tankers slow down, fuel costs rise, and the people who actually need to move food, medicine, and goods are left waiting on decisions made by armed bureaucracies and their rivals.
The State Monopoly at the Strait
The force rejected US claims that the strait was open and said the restrictions would continue until US military actions against Iran end and relevant commitments are implemented. Gharibabadi, speaking to Iran’s Student News Network, said Iran and Oman had reached an understanding on arrangements for passage through the strait, but stressed that it would depend on the US fulfilling its commitments. That’s the familiar script: armed institutions set the terms, then call it order.
The AP reported that six months into the Iran war, the conflict’s economic toll has been uneven. It said the most dramatic predictions of surging oil prices, worldwide recession and economic catastrophe haven’t come true, even if no corner of the world’s economy has been untouched. Investment strategist Michael Ashley Schulman of Cerity Partners put it this way: "So far, the global economy has pulled off the financial equivalent of a ‘Mission Impossible’ scene."
That line sounds clever. The reality is less cinematic. The AP said stock markets fell after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, with oil prices surging and Wall Street retreating. The Dow and Nasdaq entered corrections and the S&P 500 had its worst month since 2022. Then came the rebound. The AP said a major turnaround unfolded since the market bottomed in late March, with the Dow up nearly 19%, the S&P up almost 22% and the Nasdaq up 27%. If those gains survive the waning months of 2026, all three indexes would post their fourth consecutive year of gains.
The International Monetary Fund said in a July report that the economy was "being shaped by two major forces, pushing in opposite directions." That’s one way to describe a system where war shakes the bottom rungs while capital finds a way to keep climbing.
Who Pays, Who Shrugs
The AP said main street may be paying more for fuel, food and travel, but Wall Street is shrugging it off. The war’s most obvious economic consequence has been its impact on oil, with tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a crawl and Brent crude climbing from a prewar close of about $72 a barrel to as high as nearly $120. Prices have eased, but they’re still up about 20% from before the war.
Jet fuel is expected to cost, on average, 70% more than in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association. Airlines have raised ticket costs, hiked baggage fees and slapped on fuel surcharges while slashing flights or backing off from plans for added routes. Lufthansa Group cut 20,000 short-haul flights and Spirit Airlines evaporated. Brett House, a Columbia University economist, said, "The likelihood that fuel surcharges are going to be rolled back and airfares are going to be brought down is very low over the next few months." He added, "There is less choice for consumers and less competition between airlines, and therefore, less pressure to rein in fare increases."
That’s the market version of democracy: fewer choices, higher prices, and the same people explaining why there’s nothing to be done.
The NGO Mirage and the Hunger Line
The war also hurt the fight against hunger. Fertilizer prices soared, peaking in April at 44% higher than before the war, according to the World Bank’s price index. Some farmers trimmed fertilizer use, potentially imperiling next year’s harvests. Arif Gasilov of the Gasilov Group consultancy said, "If you’re reducing your fertilizer usage right now, it’s in a way borrowing against next year’s soil health."
The United Nations World Food Programme warned that tens of millions could be pushed into hunger. Its acting executive director, Carl Skau, said the "suffocation of fertilizer exports" had hit Asia and Africa hard. He said higher transportation costs hindered the WFP’s own humanitarian efforts, too, and added, "An oil tanker anchored in the Strait of Hormuz can mean one less meal a day for a child in Sudan." He also said, "When oil prices go up, so does the price of flour, rice and vegetables."
The aid machine speaks in the language of relief while moving through the same chokepoints as the war economy. It can warn, model, and appeal. It can’t stop the armed states that keep the chokehold in place.
The AP said the war has already cost the U.S. tens of billions of dollars and caused thousands in Iranian casualties, and shaved an estimated hundreds of billions of dollars from projected global output. It also said the family of President Donald Trump has been among the beneficiaries.
Military contractor Powerus, about to be taken public by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., won an Air Force contract worth as much as $90 million to supply interceptors to shoot down Iranian drones. The private equity firm 1789 Capital Management, which Don Jr. joined days after his father’s reelection, owns stakes in several other military contractors profiting from the war, including Anduril, which won U.S. approval for up to $2 billion in sales of drone interceptors to Kuwait; Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which is providing satellite service to guide U.S. drones against Iran; and rocket maker Firehawk Defense, which won Pentagon contracts for propellants and warheads to replenish dwindling U.S. supplies. Alexa Henning, a spokeswoman for 1789 Capital, said Don Jr. wasn’t involved in the decision to put money in those companies, so there is no "nefarious connection."
President Donald Trump’s investment portfolio run by outside managers has also scooped up shares of U.S. military suppliers helped by the war, including Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics and Northrop Grumman. Democrats released a report this week saying Trump’s holdings in oil and gas stocks have soared by as much as $15.5 million. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said, "there are no conflicts of interest" and that "President Trump only acts in the best interests of the American public."
The public gets the costs. The contractors get contracts. The officials get to call it policy.