Iran has been deploying Kheibar Shekan missiles in recent strikes against US assets across the Middle East, with some penetrating American air defenses even as most are intercepted — a development that's forced the White House to weigh the costs of escalation against dwindling interceptor stockpiles and the lives already lost. Three US soldiers were killed in Jordan after an Iranian missile broke through American defenses, US officials told The New York Times, underscoring the human toll of a conflict that's stretched US military resources while Iran refines tactics learned from each launch.
The Kheibar Shekan missiles are solid-fuel, medium-range weapons with a range of at least 1,400 kilometers. They don't require prelaunch fueling, which means they can be kept ready and loaded quickly into trucks or other vehicles for launching. That mobility makes it far harder for US and Israeli warplanes to destroy launch sites before the missiles are fired. The Wall Street Journal cited US officials as saying Iran has used the missiles in recent strikes, and one official confirmed some have gotten through despite interception efforts. The officials said Iran has been varying flight paths, maneuvers, and speeds to confuse US defenses.
A Learning Curve With Deadly Consequences
The missiles are harder to destroy than older Iranian models because of their higher maneuverability. Some variants have small engines in the nose section carrying the explosive warhead that detach during the final phase of flight, allowing the missile to adjust direction as it approaches its target at about 10,000 kilometers per hour. Iran is combining Kheibar Shekan launches with high-speed attack drones and less sophisticated missiles, targeting radars supporting air defenses across the region and housing areas for US troops at bases across the Middle East, US officials told the Wall Street Journal.
Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who has led US Central Command, said, "I think what it tells us is Iran is paying attention, and they're learning, and they're looking at ways that they can get at us." He added: "This is a military that has a well-developed drone capability; it's had a missile program, a rocket program for a long period of time. They've got a lot of expertise in this area."
Fabian Hinz, an independent missile expert, said Iran may be assembling more missiles from components in underground bases, though the production facilities where the missile engines were built have been destroyed. He said Iran likely studied previous launches in order to maximize their chances of missiles reaching their targets. Hinz also said, "Iran has seen what types of maneuvers are the most effective ones for overcoming missile defense. Every single combat use gives you some sort of data, so that's very useful for the Iranians."
Analysts told the Wall Street Journal that Kheibar Shekans are far cheaper than US and Israeli interceptors used to stop them, at a cost between $2 million and $15 million depending on the system. Israel said it shot most of the Kheibar Shekans fired at it by Iran, which claimed it targeted the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as well as another attack with the missiles last month.
Hormuz Talks Show Limited Progress
Iran and Oman have made "some progress" over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, though it remains unclear whether Iran will accept the proposal currently on the table, two sources familiar with the matter told The Jerusalem Post. One source said Oman has proposed establishing a regional consortium that would oversee maritime security, search-and-rescue operations, and other forms of regional cooperation. The source said, "The key point is that participation and payments would be voluntary."
According to the source, Iran has so far opposed the idea, insisting instead on mandatory payments, arguing that vessels would otherwise be barred from transiting the strait. Earlier on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that several rounds of talks took place between the deputy ministers of Foreign Affairs in Tehran. He said the discussions focused on exchanging views on common principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights of both coastal states. Baghaei said the talks were productive and progress was made, adding that the Omani delegation left Tehran on Saturday evening, but technical and political consultations between the two sides have continued.
Trump Weighs Interceptor Costs Against Escalation
President Donald Trump decided not to escalate the conflict with Iran, US officials told The New York Times on Saturday, because he feared an extended war could deplete interceptor stockpiles. The officials said recent White House discussions have centered on the depletion of the US's interceptor missiles, particularly since three US soldiers were killed in Jordan after an Iranian missile got through American air defenses.
US General Dan Caine said, according to the New York Times' sources, that a return to full-fledged war with Iran was doable, but would severely reduce the amount of missiles available to US Central Command in the Middle East. White House communications director Steven Cheung told the New York Times that Trump has been "consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but he continues to retain all options if Iran continues terrorist activities in the Straight of Hormuz or against allies." Cheung added that "it would be wise for Iran to work towards a negotiated deal; otherwise, they know what will happen."
One anonymous senior US official said a return to major operations against Iran would not drive them back towards negotiations, while other sources said the strikes would have the opposite effect, giving the Iranian leadership an external threat to focus on and rally against. Earlier on Saturday, sources familiar with the administration's decision-making process told The Jerusalem Post that Trump has not yet made a final decision on whether to launch a major strike against Iran.
Trump said on Friday that the United States is continuing diplomatic talks with Tehran while keeping the military option fully prepared. "We're locked and loaded," Trump said, adding that Washington could escalate its military campaign "to a much higher level" if necessary, but that his preferred option remains a negotiated agreement.
Why This Matters:
The deaths of three US soldiers in Jordan and Iran's demonstrated ability to penetrate American air defenses — even as most missiles are intercepted — reveal the human and material costs of a conflict that's testing both sides' capacity for sustained military engagement. Iran's refinement of missile tactics with each strike, combined with the cost asymmetry between cheap Iranian missiles and expensive US interceptors, creates a strategic dilemma: escalation risks depleting the very defenses that protect US personnel across the region, while restraint allows Iran to continue developing weapons that have already proven lethal. The Oman-mediated talks over Hormuz navigation offer a diplomatic path, but Iran's insistence on mandatory payments suggests the gap between voluntary cooperation and coercive leverage remains wide. Trump's stated preference for diplomacy reflects a calculation that war would stretch US resources without bringing Iran closer to compromise — a recognition that military superiority doesn't always translate to strategic advantage when the other side is willing to absorb losses and adapt.