Oil Keeps Moving as Sailors Bear Hormuz Risks

Oil continued moving through the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military protection as tanker operators accepted longer journeys, higher costs and risks to sailors. Lloyd's List Intelligence said operators moved Gulf producers’ oil at night, switched off location systems and mobile phones, and used a U.S.-protected lane near Oman's coast before transferring cargo to tankers bound for Asian customers.

Iran said seven tankers caught fire or were damaged overnight after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines. Iranian state television attributed the claim to the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy; the Associated Press couldn't independently confirm it. The report mentioned no casualties.

Oil Moves Under Protection

Lloyd's List Intelligence said “active Gulf operators show little sign of retreating” despite 28 attacks on ships in October, the highest number since the war began. The British military monitor United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said October had the most reported attacks on commercial shipping since March, when the war began. UKMTO didn't report the latest alleged attacks and said some shippers were becoming less willing to report incidents.

The U.S. Central Command oversaw the “dark shuttle,” which kept Gulf oil shipments at roughly prewar levels. The route took more time and money, and exposed sailors to greater risks. Tanker spot charter rates had climbed to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, while ship-to-ship transfers could take several days. Experts said oil producers had found ways to keep crude flowing, but at mounting cost.

Iran's blockade of the strait, a narrow waterway vital to global energy trade, disrupted oil and liquefied natural gas supplies and contributed to soaring energy prices and inflation. Shipping companies used alternative routes, pushing Middle East oil exports above prewar levels the previous week. HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery projected that investment in alternative logistics routes could make Hormuz “redundant” in five years.

Military Plans and Economic Pressure

The New York Times reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed renewed strikes on Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. TIME reported that the United States and Israel were developing plans for major strikes after the November midterms, potentially targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. The Times reported that President Donald Trump hadn't approved the proposed strikes.

Some U.S. officials reportedly argued an intense but limited campaign could hasten Iran's economic collapse amid a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and economic sanctions, while making Tehran more willing to negotiate. Trump has at times shared that view. Last month, he said, “I think the war is going to end immediately after the election. They can't hold out any longer.”

Iran kept promoting a proposal to end the war and fully reopen the strait within a week if the United States met conditions including ending its blockade of Iranian ports. The conditions echoed those in a deal that fell apart within days of both sides signing it in June. Trump rejected the seven-day proposal in late September, though both sides acknowledged indirect discussions had continued.

Iranian leaders said this week they wouldn't negotiate directly with the United States unless Washington met demands that included ending its naval blockade and releasing frozen Iranian funds. The U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign that began the war on Feb. 28, along with attacks in June 2025 during an earlier round of nuclear diplomacy, had hardened Iran's view that Washington wasn't serious about negotiations.

Escalation and Regional Costs

The United States was sending additional military assets, including a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops, to join what officials described as the largest force of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades. Mediators were working to bring Washington and Tehran back to formal talks.

Iran again threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the region if the United States continued helping guide commercial ships through the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained wary but open to diplomacy and ready to defend itself. Iran recently indicated it could widen its targets to infrastructure such as undersea cables and data centers.

A return to full fighting would endanger civilians across the region. It would complicate deliveries of oil, natural gas and fertilizer, and likely cause another price spike. Iran's blockade had already contributed to energy-price increases, while the protected shipping route kept oil moving at higher cost and greater risk to sailors.