Hormuz Tanker Attacks Put Control of Oil Routes in Focus

Iran said seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran asserts control and the United States is helping guide commercial ships. The Associated Press couldn't independently confirm Iran’s claims, and officials reported no casualties. These competing actions put control of a vital shipping route at the center of a conflict threatening oil supplies and pushing up energy costs.

Iran threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the region if Washington continued helping commercial vessels through the strait. Tehran treats control of the waterway as leverage in talks with Washington. Tankers have continued moving oil under U.S. military protection, while operators willing to make the journey have switched off location systems and mobile phones and traveled at night.

A contested shipping corridor

Lloyd’s List Intelligence said tanker operators used a U.S.-protected lane near Oman’s coast, then transferred oil to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman for shipment to Asian customers. U.S. Central Command oversees the operation, known as the “dark shuttle.” It has kept Gulf oil shipments at roughly prewar levels, but sailors face more time, expense and risk.

Spot charter rates for tankers had climbed to hundreds of thousands of dollars a day, and ship-to-ship transfers could take several days. “Active Gulf operators show little sign of retreating” despite 28 attacks on ships in October, Lloyd’s said at an online webinar Thursday. The British military monitor United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said October had the most reported attacks on commercial shipping since the war began in March. UKMTO didn't report the latest alleged attacks and had noted that some shippers were becoming less willing to report incidents.

Iran’s blockade of the strait has disrupted oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, contributing to soaring energy prices and inflation. Middle East oil exports nevertheless topped prewar levels the previous week as shipping companies used alternative routes. HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery projected that investment in alternative logistics routes could make Hormuz “redundant” in five years.

Strikes discussed as elections approach

The New York Times reported, citing people familiar with deliberations, that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discussed renewed strikes on Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week. TIME reported that the United States and Israel were developing plans for major strikes after the November midterms, with possible targets including Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. The Times reported that President Donald Trump hadn't approved the proposed strikes.

An Israeli election is scheduled for Oct. 27, and U.S. midterm elections are due in November. Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies and a former Iran specialist in Israel’s military and intelligence services, told The Associated Press that Netanyahu wanted to attack Iran. He said an attack was almost guaranteed if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won clearly, and described the region as heading toward “another kinetic escalation.”

Trump has previously called off plans for renewed attacks, including reportedly blocking an Israeli multi-day offensive earlier this month. He rejected five proposals for major operations against Iran or the Houthis in recent months and ruled out attacking Iran before the midterms. The last reported U.S. strikes on Iran were on Sept. 8; Iranian attacks on commercial shipping continued.

Diplomacy, leverage and regional risk

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran remained wary but open to diplomacy and ready to defend itself. Iran has proposed ending the war and fully reopening the strait within a week if the United States meets conditions including ending its blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump rejected the proposal in late September, though both sides acknowledged indirect discussions had continued.

The United States was sending a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops to join what was described as the largest force of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East in decades. Mediators were working to bring Washington and Tehran back to formal talks. The Soufan Center said both countries appeared to believe they had enough leverage to achieve their goals, and that those “dueling perceptions” had impeded progress toward a deal.

The economic and military consequences extend beyond the strait. The U.S. State Department ordered nonemergency government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. The Houthis had also tried to disrupt shipping through Bab El-Mandeb, an alternative route for energy trade. Full fighting would endanger civilians across the region, complicate deliveries of oil, natural gas and fertilizer, and likely cause another price spike.