Pakistan’s capital was preparing for possible new talks between Tehran and Washington as the ceasefire in the Iran war hung in the balance. The two-week ceasefire was set to expire at 0000 GMT Wednesday, or 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, and the truce between Iran, Israel and the United States began after multiple deadlines posed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Truce on a Timer
The ceasefire in the Iran war began April 8, but the clock was always part of the coercion. The two-week ceasefire was set to expire at 0000 GMT Wednesday, or 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, with no extension agreed to by the parties, either overtly through public messaging or by allowing it to pass without directly resuming hostilities. The arrangement was already under strain from the start, with Iranian attacks targeting Gulf Arab states and Israel after it had started. Another mysterious attack struck an Iranian oil refinery on an island that afternoon.
Pakistan’s capital was preparing for possible new talks between Tehran and Washington, and authorities in Islamabad had made preparations similar to those that accompanied the first talks. That suggested another round loomed, even though so far neither Iran nor the U.S. had sent a delegation into Pakistan.
Who Controls the Chokepoint
Serious challenges faced the talks that may be held in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire’s expiration, including the future of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear program and other issues. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all natural gas and oil passes, remained effectively closed over Iranian attacks in the waterway, including some attacks Saturday. There was also a fear that Iran mined a portion of the strait used by transiting ships during peacetime.
Since the war, Iran reportedly had been charging as much as $2 million a vessel to allow them to pass. Opening the strait remained a key focus of negotiations and Tehran’s strongest leverage against Washington, particularly as countries around the world had begun rationing energy and warning of shortages of jet fuel. The choke point is not just geography; it is power, and the people farthest from the negotiating table are the ones who pay when the flow stops.
The U.S. also attacked and boarded one Iranian vessel that tried to outrun the American naval blockade in the strait. The U.S. Navy attacked an Iranian container ship that tried to run its blockade of the strait this weekend, with Marines rappelling onto it from helicopters. The naval blockade and boarding operation showed the machinery of state force doing what it does best: policing movement, controlling passage, and turning a waterway into a battleground for rival powers.
Talks, Deadlines, and Demands
An earlier round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. was held in Pakistan from April 11 into the early morning the following day. U.S. Vice President JD Vance took part in the highest-level talks between America and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ended without an agreement. Since the weekend, authorities in Islamabad had made preparations similar to those that accompanied the first talks, suggesting another round loomed.
The White House said Vance would be returning to Islamabad for a new round of talks in the coming days with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. So far, neither Iran nor the U.S. had sent a delegation into Pakistan. The whole process remains a contest among states and their envoys, with ordinary people left to absorb the fallout from deadlines set above their heads.
All of Iran’s highly enriched uranium remained in the country, likely entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June. Iran had not enriched since then but maintained it had the right to do so for peaceful purposes and denied seeking nuclear weapons. Trump, along with Israel, called for Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear program and give up its stockpile. Iran rejected that in its 10-point proposal for ending the war.
The future of the talks, the strait, and the ceasefire now sits inside a familiar apparatus: military pressure, diplomatic theater, and demands from the top that others surrender leverage first. The result is a negotiation shaped by blockade, bombardment and deadlines, with the Strait of Hormuz and the ceasefire both hanging on the decisions of states that keep treating human life and energy flows as bargaining chips.