Oil prices held above $80 a barrel on Monday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran kept Middle East supply risks elevated and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted. A tanker was docked at the Port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, while reports said shipping disruptions were supporting crude values. The market readout was blunt. Ordinary people get inflation fears; states get leverage.
The State Monopoly on Force, in Real Time
Iran’s army said it attacked the United Arab Emirates' Al Minhad Air Base with drones, according to Iranian state television reports. Coverage of the broader crisis also included claims that the United States launched dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran. Reuters said there was no evidence of an attack after an AI-generated video circulated claiming Iran’s Kharg ship was destroyed. The video was posted by Trump. The machinery of state messaging kept moving, and the public was left sorting claims from counterclaims while the region’s shipping lanes and markets took the hit.
U.S. stock index futures dipped as strikes in the Middle East worsened inflation fears, while most crypto stocks were higher and bitcoin traded above $78,000. Gulf bourses slipped as investors reacted to the Iran-U.S. escalation, denting regional risk appetite. The language of “risk” does a lot of work here. It means the people who don’t control the missiles, the sanctions, or the shipping lanes still pay for all three.
Pressure Campaigns in Suits and Uniforms
At the policy level, the U.S. sought to ramp up pressure on Iran during G20 finance talks. Finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies opened talks Monday at a U.S.-hosted gathering in Asheville, North Carolina, with the Trump administration seeking to escalate economic pressure on Iran amid a renewed exchange of fire with Tehran. The gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors ran through Tuesday in the Blue Ridge Mountains city. The first exchange of attacks for a month between the United States and Iran in the Middle East loomed over the meetings as leaders convened early Monday.
Shortly before talks opened, the European Union urged continued diplomatic efforts to reach a peace settlement in the Middle East war, which had also seen Tehran virtually block off the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway is a crucial path of global energy transit, and its closure has caused oil prices to spike. The EU said it welcomed efforts at ensuring Iran ceases its destabilizing activities and engages in peace negotiations with good faith, including through additional, U.S.-led economic pressure, and pledged to work with international partners to maintain pressure on Tehran. The diplomats called it peace. The sanctions machinery called it pressure. The shipping lanes called it disruption.
The G20 comprises 19 nations plus the EU and the African Union. It was established in the wake of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis to boost global economic and financial stability. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent skipped last year's meeting led by South Africa, which has been excluded from the group by the U.S. Washington holds the rotating presidency this year. Instead, U.S. officials invited Poland to the table, although it is not a permanent G20 member. Brazil's finance minister is shunning the gathering amid tensions with the Trump administration. A Russian representative is participating, too, and a European official speaking on condition of anonymity expressed disapproval that Moscow, at war with Ukraine since its 2022 invasion, was not excluded.
Besides promoting economic growth, U.S. priorities this year include dealing with global imbalances and sovereign debt challenges, a senior U.S. Treasury official told reporters ahead of talks. G20 discussions will seek to ensure that economies avoid policies that push excess production and capacity into global markets, the official added. Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council said, 'Those are difficult conversations to have.' He added that the U.S.-Canada trade war weighs on unity among the Group of Seven advanced economies as countries broach tough topics in the wider grouping. G7 finance ministers were also expected to meet on the margins of the Asheville talks. The state system keeps convening itself to manage the damage it keeps producing.
Who Gets to Speak, Who Gets Shut Out
Certain reporters from major U.S. newsrooms, including The New York Times and Bloomberg News, were not granted credentials to cover the gathering. Bloomberg News said the Treasury offered no explanation for rejecting its numerous accreditation requests. The Times said its economic policy reporter was excluded, while another Times reporter covering Europe was allowed access. A Treasury spokesperson said it planned to welcome nearly 300 media representatives from around a dozen countries. The official added that access to policymakers during the event comes with a responsibility to report factual information consistent with established journalistic standards and that coverage should not prioritize clicks, engagement, or sensationalism.
That line about standards lands with a familiar thud. The same institutions that manage sanctions, exclusions, and pressure campaigns also decide which reporters get a badge and which don’t. The gate stays in place. The message gets polished.
All eyes were also on bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the summit, where Bessent was set to make direct appeals to counterparts as Washington pushed to isolate Iran economically. A Treasury official said Bessent would deliver a strong statement to the G20 to urge compliance with U.S. sanctions if countries wanted to continue operating in the dollar-based financial system. That’s the architecture on display: military escalation, financial coercion, diplomatic theater, and a global market told to absorb the shock. The people below the summit don’t get a vote in any of it.