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Published on
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 08:10 PM

By James Kowalski — Center-Right Desk

Unknown projectiles struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, Britain's UKMTO maritime security body reported Wednesday. A crude oil tanker and two other vessels had each "been struck by an unknown projectile," the agency said. UKMTO first described one vessel as an LNG tanker, then later called it a tanker. The attacks came as Iranian officials confirmed they had received a U.S. response to Tehran's latest proposal to end the seven-month war.

They didn't say what the response contained. They didn't say whether Washington had rejected it.

The Strait and the Sanctions

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the response to President Masoud Pezeshkian at a Cabinet meeting, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told the state-run IRNA news agency. "We will make every effort to bring the agreement to fruition and will firmly stand up for the rights of the Iranian people," Pezeshkian said. "The agreement must now be based on a win-win strategy."

An official briefed on the talks, who wasn't Iranian and spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said Qatari officials briefed Araghchi on the U.S. response Tuesday in Doha. The sides largely agree on the steps needed, the official said. They disagree over the order in which to take them.

The Iranian position carries demands. Araghchi said the previous week he had floated a plan to reopen the strait in a week if the United States lifted its blockade of Iranian ports, released frozen Iranian assets and waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales, among other conditions. President Trump rejected it, saying Iran wanted a deal because it was "losing so badly" and that the proposal "would not be acceptable." The source article also says Iran wants an eventual deal to grant it control over the strait. Before the war, around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the lane. Since the conflict began, Tehran has blocked commercial ships and fired on vessels it accused of unauthorized crossings. Washington answered with a counterblockade of Iranian ports.

The Treasury Department added pressure Tuesday. It sanctioned ten individuals and entities based in Iran, Hong Kong and Pakistan, accusing them of procuring weapons and components for Iran's Defense Ministry. The action fell under "Operation Economic Outcast," which aims to sever "critical financial lifelines" for the Iranian government. Traders in Tehran meanwhile exchanged more than 2.5 million rials for one U.S. dollar, a record low. The previous record, 2.2 million, came Sept. 2.

At home, Tehran's security apparatus kept up its own pressure. IRNA reported two men were executed Wednesday for involvement in violence during the anti-government protests that began Dec. 28. The judiciary said they took part in unrest in Mashhad that left four security-force members dead. Rights groups said thousands were killed in the crackdown and tens of thousands arrested. Iranian authorities reported a substantially lower death toll.

Israel's Warning

Meir Ben-Shabbat, a former national security council head and one of the architects of the Abraham Accords, cautioned in a Wednesday interview with Maariv that pressure on Iran could still push Tehran toward a direct attack on Israel. In his assessment, the regime "still does not have its back against the wall." He put it in medical terms: "its condition is serious but not critical." The Iranians, he said, are probably counting on American willingness to reach an agreement "saving them if they reach the edge of the abyss."

He argued that any deal, even one meeting the administration's parameters, "will ultimately be a lifeline for the regime in Tehran; it will finance its recovery and preserve the dangers from it." He added that Israel "must always be prepared on the assumption that at a certain point in time, which will not necessarily be possible to predict, Iran will consider attacking it."

Ben-Shabbat described Iran's campaign against Europe as a multidimensional hybrid effort: "gray zone" warfare, terrorism through proxies, cyberattacks and economic influence. He said Iranian drones, apparently launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah, had directly struck the British air base at Akrotiri in Cyprus. Asked whether Israelis and Jews abroad should prepare for more attempts to target them, he replied: "The system and the citizens must assume so." He also quoted German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's June 2025 remark that Israel "is doing the dirty work for all of us." Ben-Shabbat said, "He was right then, and his words are also correct today."

Hezbollah, Hamas and Turkey

Ben-Shabbat said Hezbollah had suffered a strategic blow but that the campaign against it wasn't over. He called the pager operation and the Israeli attack that followed two years ago a turning point. In his account, it led to the elimination of the man who had ruled southern Lebanon and Hezbollah for 40 years, and it helped enable the collapse of the Assad regime. Naim Qassem, he said, was struggling to fill the vacuum left by Nasrallah. Lebanese frustration over the cost of Hezbollah's war is growing, he said, and the Lebanese government, despite its weakness, is trying to establish a new order. He cited Lebanese-American commentator Hussein Abd al-Hussein, who wrote that Hezbollah had suffered a strategic defeat but refused to acknowledge it.

On Gaza, Ben-Shabbat rejected the notion that Israel had scaled back its goals. "Israel must complete the task until the military and governing capabilities of the Hamas organization in the Strip are completely eliminated, the territory is completely demilitarized, and there is Israeli security control," he said.

He also addressed European measures targeting goods from the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. He said he didn't know the precise figures on the impact on Palestinians. Some international actors, he said, placed greater importance on harming settlements than on Palestinians' economic well-being, which he called "another expression of the double standard and hypocrisy on their part."

On Turkey, he described a growing regional power that had become the dominant player in Syria after Assad's fall. He noted Ankara continues to host senior Hamas leaders. But he stressed Turkey "was not Iran": it is a NATO member, and its relations with Israel remain unsevered despite a deep crisis.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, for its part, issued a 26-page letter urging American voters to "remove from power" Trump's allies. The U.S. midterms are Nov. 3. The source article notes polls showed the war was unpopular from the outset, and that fuel price increases have hurt Republicans.

Why This Matters: The talks are unfolding while ships are being hit in the world's most important oil lane, Iran's currency is at record lows and its proxies are accused of reaching into Europe. From a security standpoint, Israeli officials like Ben-Shabbat see the risk in a deal that restores Iranian finances without dismantling the capabilities that threaten Israel and its neighbors. The dispute over sequencing in Doha is about more than procedure. It determines whether pressure on Tehran is sustained or relieved at the moment Iran's leadership is betting on American flexibility. Midterm politics in Washington add a further variable. So does Iran's open appeal to American voters.

Reviewed by the editorial desk — September 30, 2026
Last updated September 30, 2026
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