Mediators said Monday they had made progress in getting the United States and Iran back to negotiations after both sides paused attacks following a period of rapidly escalating tensions. The people paying the price were never the ones in the rooms where the deals get stitched together. Regional officials said mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan were working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran to return to an interim ceasefire deal that had collapsed after exchanges of fire.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had asked for more discussions, reaching out directly “because we’ve been hitting them very hard.” Iran said there were no direct talks underway. “We’re having good talks, so we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters Monday on Air Force One. “I think there’s a good chance that something could happen. And if it does, good. if it doesn’t, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.”
Who Pays for the Brass Knuckles
Neither the U.S. nor Iran reported carrying out any attacks for three days, a respite after about two weeks of sustained bombardments that had led to increasing fears of a return to all-out war. The U.S. paused attacks after targeting Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure in a nearly two-week escalation sparked by Iran’s firing at ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil shipments. Iran responded to the strikes with missile and drone attacks on countries hosting U.S. troops, killing at least three service members at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq. Iran halted its attacks following the American pause, Tehran’s army spokesperson told Iranian state TV on Sunday.
Saudi Arabia said it had shot down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq that had targeted its petroleum facilities. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have attacked Saudi oil facilities as part of a separate but related conflict. It was unclear if they referred to the same attack. Two drone attacks were reported against a Kurdish Iranian dissident group in Iraq on Monday, and Jordan said it had shot down two drones, without saying where they originated. There were no reports of casualties or damage.
Iran and Ukraine publicly feuded after Ukraine fired on at least one Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea over the weekend. Iran said a sailor had been killed in the attack. Iran is an important ally of Russia in its war against Ukraine and helped Moscow build up its drone expertise.
The Machinery of War Runs on Stockpiles
The Iran war has drawn down the U.S. stockpile of key weapons systems like missiles and interceptors, analysts said. Asked if the U.S. munitions stockpile was running low, Trump said both that it was “in very good shape,” and “I’d like to have more, to be honest.” Experts have questioned how long both the U.S. and Iran can afford to keep up attacks. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has told Trump that the state of the country’s stockpile could have an impact on military operations in Iran, a U.S. official said. Caine told lawmakers at a hearing last week that “airpower has its limits” in achieving military objectives. The U.S. military has employed airstrikes almost exclusively against Iran.
One of the regional officials who spoke to AP described the progress made in mediation efforts as “significant.” He said mediators were working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism for managing vessels’ transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the flashpoint for the latest strikes and counterstrikes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said during a news conference in Tehran on Monday that “mediators may convey messages to us from the American side” but that there were no direct negotiations. He said Iran and Oman had already held talks on Friday and Saturday on how to manage ship traffic through the waterway.
Their aim is to “develop mechanisms to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights and sovereignty of both coastal states, as well as Iran’s security and national interests” Baghaei said. He stressed that the waterway remains closed. Tehran has asserted that the interim deal with the U.S. allows it to manage shipping on the waterway and potentially charge fees, and it has objected to U.S. efforts to support an alternative route that passes close to Oman. The strait was open to all without fees before the war.
The U.S. military on Monday said its recently reimposed naval blockade against Iran continued, with 17 commercial ships redirected, two disabled and two boarded. The 60-day period established by the interim deal in mid-June was well into its second half, and major issues that were meant to be negotiated, notably Iran’s nuclear program at the heart of tensions, had been set aside as mediators tried to keep both sides talking.
Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was at a three-week low, a maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, adding that no new attacks had been confirmed in the past 72 hours. It said traffic remained steady through Bab el-Mandeb. Global energy supplies and the economy remained in the balance as gasoline prices rose again.
Deals Above, Consequences Below
Concerns grew about shipping through another crucial waterway in the region, the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea. The Houthis last week threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping there, and fired on at least one Saudi tanker, setting it alight. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he planned to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. They last met in Washington in February, weeks before they launched the war on Iran that killed senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon fired at Israel two days after the war began, and Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion. Since then, the U.S. has supported landmark direct talks between Lebanon and Israel to try to calm that front and find a way to disarm Hezbollah.