After three days without reported attacks, mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan said Monday they've made significant progress in getting the United States and Iran back to negotiations following a period of rapidly escalating tensions that left at least four U.S. service members dead and raised fears of all-out war.
The pause in hostilities came after about two weeks of sustained bombardments. Iran had fired at ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz about two weeks ago, a crucial waterway for global oil shipments. The U.S. responded by targeting Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure. Iran then launched missile and drone attacks on countries hosting U.S. troops, killing at least three service members at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq.
Human Costs Mount
Iran halted its attacks following the American pause, Tehran's army spokesperson told Iranian state TV on Sunday. But the conflict's reach extended beyond direct U.S.-Iran exchanges. Saudi Arabia said it had shot down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq that had targeted its petroleum facilities. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed to have attacked Saudi oil facilities as part of a separate but related conflict. Two drone attacks were reported against a Kurdish Iranian dissident group in Iraq on Monday, and Jordan said it had shot down two drones, without saying where they originated.
Iran and Ukraine publicly feuded after Ukraine fired on at least one Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea over the weekend. Iran said a sailor had been killed in the attack. Iran is an important ally of Russia in its war against Ukraine and helped Moscow build up its drone expertise.
Weapons Stockpiles Running Low
The Iran war has drawn down the U.S. stockpile of key weapons systems like missiles and interceptors, analysts said. Asked if the U.S. munitions stockpile was running low, Trump said both that it was "in very good shape," and "I'd like to have more, to be honest." Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has told Trump that the state of the country's stockpile could have an impact on military operations in Iran, a U.S. official said. Caine told lawmakers at a hearing last week that "airpower has its limits" in achieving military objectives. The U.S. military has employed airstrikes almost exclusively against Iran. Experts have questioned how long both the U.S. and Iran can afford to keep up attacks.
Mediation Efforts Focus on Strait Access
One of the regional officials who spoke to AP described the progress made in mediation efforts as "significant." He said mediators were working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism for managing vessels' transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the flashpoint for the latest strikes and counterstrikes. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, said during a news conference in Tehran on Monday that "mediators may convey messages to us from the American side" but that there were no direct negotiations. He said Iran and Oman had already held talks last weekend on how to manage ship traffic through the waterway.
Their aim is to "develop mechanisms to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights and sovereignty of both coastal states, as well as Iran's security and national interests" Baghaei said. He stressed that the waterway remains closed. Tehran has asserted that the interim deal with the U.S. allows it to manage shipping on the waterway and potentially charge fees, and it has objected to U.S. efforts to support an alternative route that passes close to Oman. The strait was open to all without fees before the war.
Diplomatic Window Narrowing
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had asked for more discussions, reaching out directly "because we've been hitting them very hard." Iran said there were no direct talks underway. "We're having good talks, so we'll see what happens," Trump told reporters Monday on Air Force One. "I think there's a good chance that something could happen. And if it does, good. if it doesn't, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago."
The U.S. military on Monday said its recently reimposed naval blockade against Iran continued, with 17 commercial ships redirected, two disabled and two boarded. The 60-day period established by the interim deal about six weeks ago was well into its second half, and major issues that were meant to be negotiated, notably Iran's nuclear program at the heart of tensions, had been set aside as mediators tried to keep both sides talking.
Economic Impact Spreads
Global energy supplies and the economy remained in the balance as gasoline prices rose again. Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was at a three-week low, a maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy said Sunday, adding that no new attacks had been confirmed in the past 72 hours. Concerns grew about shipping through another crucial waterway in the region, the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea. The Houthis last week threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping there, and fired on at least one Saudi tanker, setting it alight. It said traffic remained steady through Bab el-Mandeb.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he planned to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. They last met in Washington earlier this year, weeks before they launched the war on Iran that killed senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon fired at Israel two days after the war began, and Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion. Since then, the U.S. has supported landmark direct talks between Lebanon and Israel to try to calm that front and find a way to disarm Hezbollah.
Why This Matters:
The pause in U.S.-Iran attacks offers a critical window for diplomacy, but the human and economic costs of escalation continue to mount across the region. At least four U.S. service members have been killed, an Iranian sailor died in Ukraine's attack, and Iran-backed groups threaten petroleum facilities that supply global energy markets. Rising gasoline prices affect working families worldwide, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts commercial shipping that supports jobs and trade. The U.S. military's acknowledgment that weapons stockpiles are strained and that airpower has limits raises questions about the sustainability of military operations. With the interim deal's 60-day window more than half expired and core issues like Iran's nuclear program still unresolved, the fragile pause depends on mediators' ability to bridge deep divides over control of critical waterways. The stakes extend beyond the immediate conflict: how nations manage shared resources like international straits affects whether commerce flows freely or becomes subject to fees and blockades that burden consumers and smaller economies most.