Mediators announced Monday that progress had been made in bringing the United States and Iran back to negotiations. This follows a period of rapidly escalating tensions and a recent pause in attacks from both sides. Regional officials, including those from Qatar and Pakistan, are working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran, aiming to revive an interim ceasefire deal that had previously collapsed after exchanges of fire.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Iran had sought more discussions, reaching out directly because the U.S. had been “hitting them very hard.” Iran, however, denied any direct talks were underway. Trump told reporters on Air Force One that there was “a good chance that something could happen,” but warned that if talks failed, the U.S. would “go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.”
Neither the U.S. nor Iran reported any attacks for three days, a brief respite after about two weeks of sustained bombardments. These had fueled fears of a return to all-out war. The U.S. had paused its attacks after targeting Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure. This nearly two-week escalation began with Iran’s firing at ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil shipments. Iran responded to these strikes with missile and drone attacks on countries hosting U.S. troops, resulting in the deaths of at least three service members at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq. Tehran’s army spokesperson confirmed on Sunday that Iran halted its attacks following the American pause.
Strait of Hormuz: Artery of Capital
Saudi Arabia reported shooting down drones fired by Iran-backed militias in Iraq, which had targeted its petroleum facilities. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen also claimed attacks on Saudi oil facilities, linking them to a separate but related conflict. The exact nature of these claims remained unclear. Two drone attacks were reported against a Kurdish Iranian dissident group in Iraq on Monday, and Jordan intercepted two drones, their origin undisclosed. No casualties or damage were reported from these incidents.
Iran and Ukraine publicly feuded after Ukraine fired on at least one Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea last weekend, killing a sailor. Iran is a key ally of Russia in its war against Ukraine, having assisted Moscow in developing its drone expertise.
The conflict has drawn down the U.S. stockpile of key weapons systems, including missiles and interceptors, according to analysts. President Trump offered contradictory statements on the munitions stockpile, claiming it was “in very good shape” while also admitting, “I’d like to have more, to be honest.” Experts have questioned the sustainability of prolonged attacks for both the U.S. and Iran. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly informed Trump that the state of the country’s stockpile could impact military operations in Iran. Caine told lawmakers last week that “airpower has its limits” in achieving military objectives, despite the U.S. military’s almost exclusive reliance on airstrikes against Iran.
Managing Imperial Contradictions
One regional official described the mediation progress as “significant.” Mediators are working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism for managing vessel transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the flashpoint for the recent strikes and counterstrikes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, stated that while “mediators may convey messages to us from the American side,” direct negotiations were not occurring. He confirmed Iran and Oman held talks last weekend on managing ship traffic through the waterway.
Baghaei emphasized the goal is to “develop mechanisms to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights and sovereignty of both coastal states, as well as Iran’s security and national interests.” He stressed that the waterway remains closed. Tehran asserts that the interim deal with the U.S. permits it to manage shipping and potentially charge fees for transit. It has objected to U.S. efforts to support an alternative route near Oman. Before the war, the strait was open to all without fees.
The U.S. military confirmed its recently reimposed naval blockade against Iran continued. It has redirected 17 commercial ships, disabled two, and boarded two others. The 60-day period established by the interim deal about six weeks ago was well into its second half. Major issues, such as Iran’s nuclear program, which lies at the heart of tensions, have been set aside as mediators prioritize keeping both sides engaged in talks.
Concerns grew about shipping through another crucial waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea. The Houthis last week threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping there, firing on at least one Saudi tanker and setting it alight. Global energy supplies and the economy remained precarious as gasoline prices rose again. Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reached a three-week low, according to a maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy. It reported no new confirmed attacks in the past 72 hours, with traffic remaining steady through Bab el-Mandeb.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. Their last meeting was in Washington in February of the same year, weeks before they launched the war on Iran that killed senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon fired at Israel two days after the war began, prompting Israeli airstrikes and a ground invasion. Since then, the U.S. has supported landmark direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, aiming to calm that front and disarm Hezbollah. These diplomatic maneuvers aim to manage regional conflicts without addressing the underlying imperial competition for resources and strategic control.