Mediators announced Monday they had made progress in pushing the United States and Iran back to negotiations, following a temporary pause in attacks. Regional officials confirmed that mediators, led by Qatar and Pakistan, are actively working to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran. Their goal: to resurrect an interim ceasefire deal that had collapsed after recent exchanges of fire.
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Iran had requested more discussions, reaching out directly because “we’ve been hitting them very hard.” Iran, however, denied any direct talks were underway. “We’re having good talks, so we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters Monday on Air Force One, suggesting a “good chance that something could happen.” He added that if talks failed, the U.S. would “go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.”
Neither the U.S. nor Iran reported any attacks for three days, a brief respite after about two weeks of sustained bombardments. This period of intense conflict had significantly heightened fears of a return to all-out war. The U.S. paused its attacks after targeting Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure in a nearly two-week escalation. This was sparked by Iran’s firing at ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil shipments.
Iran responded to these strikes with missile and drone attacks on countries hosting U.S. troops. These attacks killed at least three service members at a base in Jordan and one in Iraq. Tehran’s army spokesperson told Iranian state TV on Sunday that Iran halted its attacks after the American pause.
Eroding National Sovereignty
One regional official described the mediation progress as “significant.” Mediators are now working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism for managing vessels’ transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway was the flashpoint for the latest strikes and counterstrikes. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, stated Monday that “mediators may convey messages to us from the American side” but reiterated that no direct negotiations were occurring. Baghaei confirmed that Iran and Oman had already held talks last weekend on managing ship traffic through the waterway.
Their stated aim is to “develop mechanisms to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights and sovereignty of both coastal states, as well as Iran’s security and national interests,” according to Baghaei. He stressed that the waterway remains closed. Tehran has asserted that the interim deal with the U.S. allows it to manage shipping on the waterway and potentially charge fees. It has also objected to U.S. efforts to support an alternative route near Oman. Before the war, the strait was open to all without fees.
The U.S. military confirmed Monday that its recently reimposed naval blockade against Iran continues. This blockade has redirected 17 commercial ships, disabled two, and boarded two others. The 60-day period established by the interim deal about six weeks ago is now well into its second half. Major issues, notably Iran’s nuclear program, which lies at the heart of tensions, have been deliberately set aside as mediators prioritize keeping both sides talking.
The Globalist Mechanism and Its Costs
Concerns are also growing about shipping through another critical regional waterway, the Bab al-Mandeb strait to the Red Sea. Houthi rebels last week threatened a blockade of Saudi shipping there and fired on at least one Saudi tanker, setting it alight. Global energy supplies and the economy remain in a precarious balance as gasoline prices have risen again. Commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reached a three-week low, according to a maritime body overseen by the U.S. Navy. This body reported Sunday that no new attacks had been confirmed in the past 72 hours, though traffic remained steady through Bab el-Mandeb.
The ongoing conflict has drawn down the U.S. stockpile of key weapons systems, including missiles and interceptors, analysts warn. President Trump claimed the stockpile was “in very good shape” but admitted, “I’d like to have more, to be honest.” Experts question the long-term affordability of sustained attacks for both the U.S. and Iran. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly told Trump that the state of the country’s stockpile could impact military operations in Iran. Caine also informed lawmakers last week that “airpower has its limits” in achieving military objectives, despite the U.S. military’s almost exclusive reliance on airstrikes against Iran.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to meet with Trump in Washington on Tuesday. Their last meeting in Washington was in February same year, weeks before they launched the war on Iran that killed senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon fired at Israel two days after the war began. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion. Since then, the U.S. has supported landmark direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, aiming to calm that front and disarm Hezbollah.