Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Oman on Saturday to discuss arrangements for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington sought a public pledge of free, secure transit. The choreography is familiar: armed states break things, then send diplomats to manage the wreckage and call it progress.
The Strait, the Ships, the State
No attacks were reported on Friday or early Saturday, but the damage from the week’s escalation was already done. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that a call between Iran, the U.S., Qatar and Pakistan had been agreed and that mediators were trying to arrange it for Saturday while Araqchi was in Oman. Oman is helping mediate an end to a war that has spread insecurity in the Gulf and raised prices around the world since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on February 28.
CBS News and its UK partner the BBC both reported that U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to lead negotiations on Saturday with Araqchi. Iran's Fars news agency later cited a source saying no negotiations would take place until the U.S. retreated from its positions. The public language is all about transit, security and arrangements. The reality underneath is a contest over who gets to command a waterway and who gets to pay for it.
Three Qatari and Saudi commercial tankers came under fire earlier in the week, prompting the U.S. to hit Iranian sites, and Iran to respond with strikes on U.S. military sites in Gulf states. Araqchi accused the United States of violating the ceasefire agreement; the U.S. revoked the license authorizing the sale of Iranian crude on Tuesday after the vessels were hit. "There can only be mutual compliance," he wrote on X. That’s the language of states after they’ve already used force, as if civilians and shipping lanes are just paperwork waiting for signatures.
Ceasefire on Paper, Pressure in Practice
Senior U.S. officials told reporters on Friday that Iran had informed U.S. officials that recent attacks on shipping in the strait were from an "errant part of their system", comments that appeared to be aimed at calming tensions. The flare-up cast further doubt over the future of an interim agreement aimed at ending the conflict and pushed oil prices higher, a politically sensitive issue for Trump ahead of November congressional elections.
"The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!" Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Friday. The message is blunt, and so is the structure behind it: one state announces the end of a ceasefire while another insists on compliance, and ordinary people are left to absorb the consequences in fuel prices, shipping disruptions and the threat of more strikes.
Qatari negotiators met officials in Iran on Friday to de-escalate tensions and discuss the Strait of Hormuz, a person with knowledge of the situation told Reuters. A written statement from Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, on Saturday threatened vengeance for the death of his predecessor and father, who was killed on February 28. Released to mark funeral ceremonies for former leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which the new leader did not attend, it said the vengeance would take place whatever happened to Iran. "We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs," the message said.
Trump had posted on Friday that he had ordered the U.S. military to be prepared to launch thousands of missiles against Iran if Tehran attempted to assassinate him. The Wall Street Journal and other U.S. media reported this week that Israel had shared intelligence with Washington that Iran had recently devised a plan to assassinate Trump. There was no immediate comment from Iran on Trump's latest remarks. At the funeral ceremonies on Thursday, a huge crowd of mourners packed a courtyard, some bearing banners reading, "We Will Kill Trump." The spectacle is grimly efficient: leaders trade threats, crowds are mobilized, and the machinery of state violence keeps humming.
Who Pays for the Rivalry
Last month's interim deal was meant to pave the way to the end of a conflict now in its fifth month, which has killed thousands, throttled worldwide energy supplies and raised fears of a global economic downturn. During the war Tehran has largely taken control of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing a stalemate. The United States is demanding that Iran publicly state it will stop attacks on ships in the strait and that all lanes will be open with no tolls through the waterway that carried one-fifth of global oil supplies before the war, the senior U.S. officials told reporters on Friday.
At least 17 people were killed in U.S. strikes on six cities in Iran on Wednesday and Thursday, the head of the public relations and information center at Iran's Health Ministry said. He said 115 people were wounded. Even so, U.S. officials said conversations between the two countries had been productive in recent days. Tehran said any breach of commitments by Washington would be met with "reciprocal action".
Renewed fighting in the Gulf has increased the pain for U.S. consumers. After weeks of steady declines, crude oil prices posted their biggest weekly rise in eight weeks. The market gets its own casualty count, the politicians get their talking points, and everyone else gets the bill.