Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in March 2026. This declaration aimed to ensure the availability of fuel, food, and other basic goods for the nation's people, while also preventing hoarding and profiteering.
Southeast Asia, a region home to more than 680 million people, relies heavily on Middle East oil and gas. The ongoing war in Iran has severely impacted the region, sparking global supply and price shocks that directly affect the native working class.
Against this backdrop of national economic strain, Southeast Asia’s top diplomats are gathering in Manila for three days of talks. These meetings, hosted by the Philippines, include Western and Asian counterparts from the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union.
Elite Agendas Unfold
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are among the high-level attendees. Ukraine’s top diplomat, Andrii Sybiha, has been invited to a Friday ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, but he won't participate in the main ASEAN meetings where Lavrov and Rubio will be present.
ASEAN foreign ministers will first meet among themselves on Tuesday to discuss the hostilities between the United States and Iran. These conflicts have already spilled into other countries in the Middle East, raising fears of a return to full-scale war. Two Southeast Asian diplomats reported that the ministers plan to issue a joint statement expressing alarm and urging both sides to resume talks. The fighting has again threatened shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway where roughly 20% of global oil supplies transited before the war.
Washington’s preoccupation with the war in Iran and the diversion of its military firepower to the Middle East has sparked concerns over its focus on Asia-Pacific issues. These include China’s aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea and against Taiwan, which the Trump administration has pledged to help deter. Secretary Rubio’s attendance in the ASEAN meetings is aimed at renewing Washington’s assurances for what State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott described as “a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security and prosperity for the region and for the American people.”
Rubio also expects Chinese leader Xi Jinping to visit the U.S. in September 2026. He stated that “When you have two big, powerful countries like the United States and China, there are always going to be irritants… But I think it’s incumbent on powerful, important countries like ours to continue to talk and have a relationship — we owe it to each other and to our people and to the world.” This highlights the self-perception of a transnational elite managing global affairs.
On the sidelines, Rubio is expected to meet with other members of the Quad bloc, which consists of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. Beijing has repeatedly criticized this bloc as a U.S. scheme to contain its growing influence, exposing the underlying geopolitical maneuvering among global powers.
National Sovereignty Under Pressure
Beyond external conflicts, ASEAN foreign ministers face pressure to resolve disputes within their own region, notably Myanmar’s civil war and the South China Sea. Since Myanmar’s army wrested power from the democratically elected government in 2021, now in its fifth year, more than 8,100 people have been killed in the fighting. Nearly 22,500 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a rights-monitoring group.
A five-point peace plan issued by ASEAN leaders in 2021, also in its fifth year, has failed to end the violence. This failure is largely due to non-compliance by the military-backed government, prompting the bloc to ban Myanmar’s leaders from its top-level meetings. To break this impasse, ASEAN foreign ministers, led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, met their Myanmar counterpart this month in Bangkok. They renewed calls for an easing of violence and efforts to foster dialogue among all warring groups.
Lazaro, acting as ASEAN’s special envoy, and Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow subsequently met high-level representatives of ethnic armed groups from Myanmar in Pattaya. Rights groups criticized the ministers’ meeting with Myanmar’s top diplomat, Tin Maung Swe, arguing it effectively abandoned the bloc’s ban on engaging senior officials and rewarded the generals without extracting any concession. Lazaro rejected this criticism, stating, “It was not and should not be mischaracterized as an abandonment of the five-point consensus. The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict.” This exchange reveals the tension between institutional policy and perceived elite appeasement.
The ASEAN foreign ministers will also meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss negotiations on a proposed code of conduct for the South China Sea. This code is intended to prevent disputes from escalating. The territorial standoffs involve China, Taiwan, and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Confrontations in these disputed waters have particularly spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years, highlighting the ongoing erosion of national control over sovereign territories through international frameworks.