Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in March, aiming to secure fuel, food, and basic goods and to prevent "hoarding and profiteering." This declaration comes as Southeast Asia’s top diplomats gather in Manila for three days of talks, with the war in Iran, Myanmar’s civil war, and disputes in the South China Sea at the center of their agenda. The ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran have already threatened shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway where roughly 20% of global oil supplies transited before the conflict erupted.
Southeast Asia, home to over 680 million people, relies heavily on Middle East oil and gas. The region has been severely impacted by global supply and price shocks sparked by the Iran war. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are among the high-level attendees at the meetings, which begin Tuesday. Ukraine’s top diplomat, Andrii Sybiha, will attend a Friday ceremony marking the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, but won't participate in the main ASEAN meetings.
Capital's Wars and Energy Markets
ASEAN foreign ministers will first meet among themselves on Tuesday to discuss the Iran war, which has spilled into other Middle Eastern countries and raised fears of a return to full-scale conflict. Two Southeast Asian diplomats reported that ministers plan to issue a joint statement expressing alarm and urging both sides to resume talks. Washington’s preoccupation with the war in Iran and the diversion of its military firepower to the Middle East has sparked concerns among regional allies about its focus on Asia-Pacific concerns. State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott stated that Secretary Rubio’s visit advances a "clear U.S. priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security and prosperity for the region and for the American people." This rhetoric frames imperialist projection as a benefit to the populace.
Rubio has not finalized a meeting with Wang but said he would "be open" to it. He wouldn't confirm if he would raise President Donald Trump’s accusations of Chinese meddling in the 2020 election. Rubio also anticipates Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit the U.S. in September. He stated late Sunday, "When you have two big, powerful countries like the United States and China, there are always going to be irritants, there are always be things we don’t agree on. But I think it’s incumbent on powerful, important countries like ours to continue to talk and have a relationship — we owe it to each other and to our people and to the world." Such statements normalize the competition between global powers.
Imperialist Maneuvers in Asia
On the sidelines of the ASEAN meetings, Rubio is expected to meet with other members of the Quad bloc. This bloc, consisting of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia, is widely regarded as a major component of the American strategy to counter China. Beijing has repeatedly criticized the Quad as a U.S. scheme to contain its growing influence, revealing the underlying struggle for regional hegemony. ASEAN foreign ministers will also meet with Wang to discuss negotiations on a proposed code of conduct for the South China Sea. These territorial standoffs involve China, Taiwan, and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Confrontations in these disputed waters have particularly spiked between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in recent years, highlighting the escalating competition for strategic maritime control and resources.
The State's Role in Myanmar's Crisis
Beyond external conflicts, ASEAN foreign ministers face pressure to address internal regional disputes, notably Myanmar’s civil war. Since Myanmar’s army seized power from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, more than 8,100 people have been killed in the fighting. Nearly 22,500 people remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. A five-point peace plan issued by ASEAN leaders in the fifth year of the conflict has failed to end the violence, primarily due to non-compliance by the military-backed government. This failure prompted the bloc to ban Myanmar’s leaders from its top-level meetings.
However, to break the impasse, ASEAN foreign ministers, led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, met their Myanmar counterpart for the first time in five years this month in Bangkok. They renewed calls for an easing of violence and efforts to foster dialogue. Lazaro and Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow subsequently met high-level representatives of ethnic armed groups from Myanmar. Rights groups criticized the meeting with Myanmar’s top diplomat, Tin Maung Swe, arguing it effectively abandoned the bloc’s ban and rewarded the generals without extracting any concession. Lazaro rejected this criticism, stating, "It was not and should not be mischaracterized as an abandonment of the five-point consensus. The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict." This "diplomacy" risks legitimizing a regime built on violence and repression.