Efforts to end a four-decade conflict that has claimed over 40,000 lives since 1984 have stalled as regional powers escalate military actions, diverting attention from the demands of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and pro-Kurdish political representatives. The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which announced its dissolution last year, and the Turkish government are unwilling to take bold steps to resolve the conflict, according to interviews with Turkish officials, lawmakers, and representatives of the northern Iraq-based PKK.
Imperial Coordination and Capital Accumulation
Amidst the ongoing Iran war, Mossad chief David Barnea visited the United Arab Emirates at least twice during Operation Roaring Lion, in March and April, to coordinate regarding the conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported. Shin Bet chief David Zini also visited the UAE, confirming coordination on security issues between the two countries. The UAE was reportedly behind some of the recent strikes against Iranian assets, including attacks on Lavan Island's refinery about one month ago, in response to Iran targeting Emirati civilian and energy infrastructures. Iran later sent a barrage of drones and missiles against both the UAE and Kuwait in response.
This military coordination has been accompanied by the transfer of military hardware, signaling a deepening partnership. United States Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee stated that Israel sent Iron Dome batteries and personnel to the United Arab Emirates for defense against Iranian attacks, highlighting an "extraordinary relationship" between the UAE and Israel. This transfer of military technology serves to bolster the regional imperial garrison and secure strategic alliances.
Further demonstrating the projection of military power to protect accumulated wealth, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks carried out in the kingdom during the Middle East war. These attacks, launched by the Saudi Air Force in late March, mark the first known direct military action on Iranian soil by the kingdom, assessed as "tit-for-tat strikes."
The State's Stalling Tactics
As regional military actions intensify, Turkey’s peace process with Kurdish militants has stalled. Just about two weeks before the Iran war broke out, Turkey's parliament made recommendations on advancing the peace process. However, the conflict has brought new doubts on both sides. Turkey has warned of the risk of new Kurdish mobilizations in Iran and Iraq and played a key role in quashing a short-lived US-Israeli idea to back a Kurdish militant ground invasion of Iran from Iraq.
President Tayyip Erdogan's government appears reluctant to enact legislative reforms, including a potential amnesty for former PKK fighters, and to give the group's jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, an official role in the peace process. Ankara maintains that the PKK must fully disarm first. Senior PKK officer Murat Karayilan stated to the PKK-linked Firat News Agency that it would be "irrational" to lay down arms without Turkish legal guarantees at a time when war "drones and missiles are flying overhead." Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit, a senior lawmaker from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, called the government's demand for full disarmament "unrealistic" and suggested they are "waiting for developments in Iran and the broader Middle East."
The Cost to Labor
The failure to achieve peace prolongs one of the world's longest-running conflicts, which has spilled into Syria and claimed tens of thousands of lives. A pro-government newspaper, Turkiye Gazetesi, reported in late April that Turkey's spy chief presented to ruling AKP party members that the PKK had taken no further disarmament steps beyond a symbolic weapons-burning ceremony last summer, delaying the peace process. Zagros Hiwa, PKK political wing spokesperson, told Reuters that Turkey had "unilaterally frozen" the peace process, in part to boost the ruling party's political prospects. A Turkish presidency spokesperson referred to Erdogan's recent speeches, in which he repeated that the peace process is disconnected from domestic politics and has good momentum, dismissing "pessimists." Erdogan says the peace process will carry on.
However, public sentiment reflects a growing disillusionment with these reform efforts. A Konda Barometer survey about five months ago found that 79% of respondents believe the state was wrong to engage with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, including 62% of Erdogan's ruling AKP party voters. While Erdogan's nationalist ally, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, suggested last week that Ocalan should be granted an official role to get things back on track, the government has yet to respond, further exposing the limits of political solutions within the existing state structure.