**Who Pays for the War Machine** Consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April as fears mounted over rising energy prices and the broader impact of the Iran war, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday. The university's headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from March and its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines, a blunt measure of how the costs of war and price pressure land on ordinary people first. The drop in sentiment coincided with a sharp rise in inflation expectations, with respondents seeing prices up 4.8% in a year from now, a full percentage point higher than the March reading and the highest since August 2025. The one-year outlook in April 2025 was 6.5% following President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff announcement. Survey comments showed that many consumers blamed the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy, said the survey's director, Joanne Hsu. Hsu said most of the interviews were completed before the April 7 ceasefire. She said, "Economic expectations will likely improve after consumers gain confidence that the supply disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict have ended and gas prices have moderated." That is the language of managed damage: people are told to wait for confidence while the disruption already hits their budgets. **Inflation From Above, Bills From Below** The survey also showed five-year inflation expectations rising to 3.4%, a 0.2 percentage point monthly increase and a percentage point below the level of a year ago. The release came shortly after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that its all-items consumer price index rose 0.9% in March, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.3%. BLS officials said most of the increase in the headline number came from the surge in energy prices, with food inflation little changed. Reuters reported that U.S. consumer prices excluding food and energy were expected to have risen 0.3% in March, up from 0.2% in February, as the Iran war fed energy prices and broader price pressures. The reporting said the conflict was adding to inflation fears and broader price pressures. The people at the bottom are left to absorb the shock while the institutions count percentages and call it analysis. **Republican Rifts, Same Old Power Game** AP reported that President Donald Trump's search for an off-ramp from the war with Iran was getting bumpy inside his Republican Party. The article said Trump's exit efforts, first through threats of annihilation and then with a ceasefire that was proving precarious, were doing little to paper over tensions that had festered since the war began six weeks ago. Conservative activist Laura Loomer, who is close to the president and often one of his top boosters, rejected the notion of brokering a deal with Iran. In an interview, she criticized Vice President JD Vance for being "in charge" of talks expected to start Saturday in Pakistan, as he takes on a larger diplomatic role ahead of a potential 2028 White House run. Loomer said, "I support President Trump. I just don’t believe in negotiating with Islamic terrorists." Vance's office did not respond to a request for comment. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a Trump supporter-turned-critic, called for the president to be removed from office through the Constitution's 25th Amendment after he said earlier this week that a "whole civilization will die tonight" unless Iran made a deal. Megyn Kelly, the former Fox News anchor who now hosts a podcast, criticized Trump and asked, "Can’t he just behave like a normal human?" Republican leaders in Congress were largely silent, with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., offering little public reaction while Congress was on recess for the opening two weeks of April. Rep. Dave Schweikert, an Arizona Republican who is running for governor, said, "How do you go up and give a presentation or speech in a situation where every 12 hours, the baseline story has a new gradient?" He added, "In many ways, it is the sin of arrogance thinking you can go out and talk about something when the story is still unfolding." Chris Wilson, a veteran Republican strategist, said, "My hope is that it will be long behind us by the time votes are cast." He added, "Fortunately for the GOP, foreign policy flare-ups rarely decide midterm elections on their own, especially when voters are far more focused on the economy and prices at home." The election talk keeps circling back to the same trap: voters are told to wait for the next round of ballots while the war, prices, and power all keep moving. **The State, the Military, and the Next Bill** Trump hailed a "big day for World Peace" after the ceasefire was first announced, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it a "victory for the United States of America that the president and our incredible military made happen." Trump later dismissed his detractors, including podcasters such as Kelly, as "stupid people" who will "say anything necessary for some 'free' and cheap publicity." Rep. David Kustoff, R-Tenn., said, "Part of America First is making sure that the homeland stays safe and Iran is a factor in our safety." He added, "We are all hopeful that the ceasefire does hold and that Iran lives up to their side of the agreement." The language of safety and agreement sits neatly on top of the machinery that turns war into policy and policy into costs for everyone else. In recent elections, Republican Clay Fuller won Greene's district by about 12 percentage points, compared with Greene's 29-point win two years earlier and Trump's almost 37-point margin there. In Wisconsin, the liberal majority on the state Supreme Court grew when a Democratic-backed candidate won by a double-digit margin. Democrats also performed strongly in a Florida state legislative district that is home to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. AP-NORC polling last month found that about 4 in 10 U.S. adults approved of how Trump was handling his job as president, largely unchanged since he returned to office in January 2025 and roughly where he was at this point in his first term, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms. The March survey found that 63% of Republicans backed airstrikes against Iranian military targets, while only 20% backed deploying American ground troops. About 6 in 10 Republicans said they were at least "somewhat" concerned about affording gas in the next few months. Republicans returning to Washington next week face choices including whether to approve additional spending for the war, which the administration is seeking in billions of dollars, and whether to take up another war powers resolution to curb Trump's options in Iran after a similar effort failed last month. At the outset of the war, some GOP lawmakers said Trump would need to seek approval from Congress if the conflict lasted longer than 60 days, a deadline that would approach near the end of April if the ceasefire did not hold. The same institutions that launch the crisis now debate how to fund it, regulate it, or delay it, while the public is left to pay in prices, fear, and instability.
