The Gulf States were on edge on May 26 as the US renewed its push for a deal with Iran while carrying out self-defense strikes in southern Iran overnight, the first major strike of this kind since the ceasefire. The strikes, described by US Central Command as necessary to protect US troops from threats, showed how quickly the machinery of war keeps moving even while diplomats talk about peace.
Who Gets Hit First
Tim Hawkins, a US Central Command spokesman, said in a statement overnight, “US forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.” Arab News in Saudi Arabia said, “US forces on Monday conducted strikes in southern Iran against targets including boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites, in what it described as defensive actions.” Those are the words of the powerful: defense, protection, necessity. On the ground, the result is more strikes in a region already being battered by the war.
The strikes came as Iran’s top negotiator and its foreign minister were in Doha for talks with Qatar’s prime minister on a potential deal with the US to end the three-month-old war, after Washington and Tehran played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough. The timing lays out the hierarchy plainly: negotiations in one room, missiles in another, and ordinary people left to absorb the consequences of decisions made far above them.
The Diplomacy Trap
US President Donald Trump had been pressuring Saudi Arabia and other countries to join the Abraham Accords, but the countries appeared to be pushing back and saying they first wanted to see Israel work with the Palestinians. That push and pull shows the familiar script of statecraft: pressure from Washington, cautious resistance from regional governments, and the people of the region left to live with the fallout while leaders trade conditions and promises.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in India, where, according to Arab News, he said the US would give diplomacy every chance to succeed. He said there was “a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the Strait (of Hormuz), and enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter. Hopefully, we can pull it off.” The language of opportunity and negotiation sits beside the reality of strikes already underway. The apparatus keeps both tracks open at once.
Underground, Couriers, and Missile Math
Iranian leaders were reported to be hiding underground and communicating by courier. That detail captures the war’s internal logic: the people at the top retreat into secrecy while everyone else remains exposed to the violence and uncertainty they help produce.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said on Tuesday in a written statement carried by state television that regional countries would no longer be shields for US bases. He said, “What is certain in this regard is that the hands of time will not turn backward, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer serve as shields for American bases,” in a statement for the Eid Al-Adha holiday. The statement was carried by state television, another reminder that even the official channels of power are part of the same managed conflict.
Gulf News noted that intelligence assessments indicated Iran now had access to 30 of 33 sites near the Strait of Hormuz, enabling missiles to be moved from bunkers onto mobile launchers. It said, “The latest confrontation highlighted what many military planners increasingly fear: That Iran still retains enough missile and naval capability to threaten US forces and commercial shipping despite nearly three months of US-Israeli attacks.” The planners count sites, launchers, and shipping lanes; the people below them count fear, disruption, and the cost of a war that keeps expanding through the region.
The diplomatic advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, Dr. Anwar bin Mohammed Gargash, said the UAE was capable of overcoming challenges with confidence and steadfastness. He wrote on X, “Wars may impose circumstantial challenges, but the UAE was built on solid foundations that make it more capable of cohesion and overcoming them. Conscious leadership, strong institutions, a developed and competitive economy, and authentic values based on solidarity, tolerance, and justice.” He also wrote, “The UAE's success was not born of chance, but the fruit of a steadfast vision and sincere, continuous work over the years. The UAE is capable of overcoming challenges with confidence and steadfastness.”
Faisal J. Abbas, the Editor-in-Chief of Arab News, said peace was possible with Israel but that the country “needs to embrace a two-state solution.” He wrote that “the news about an imminent agreement between the US and Iran is certainly a welcome development. As mediators work to bridge the gaps between the American and Iranian positions, we need to remember that a negotiated outcome is by far the best possible solution for now, as it is the only one that gets us close to agreed-upon results.” He noted that Qatar and Pakistan were working to bridge gaps towards a deal, and that Saudi Arabia was urging both the Americans and the Iranians to pursue positive engagement while highlighting the need for clear wording on security and freedom of navigation without new restrictions. Previous positions, he wrote, made it clear that Saudi Arabia wanted to see the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally.