Operations Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, launched by Israel and the United States on February 28, aimed to create conditions for regime change in Iran. This aggressive posture has fueled a dangerous regional escalation, with Iran responding to these provocations using advanced missile technology. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed by an Israeli strike on a Tehran bunker, an attack that also claimed the lives of Iran’s defense minister and several IRGC generals. This marked the largest-ever aerial attack by the Israeli Air Force (IAF).
Escalation of Hostilities
Iran has been using Kheibar Shekan missiles in recent strikes against US assets across the Middle East. These missiles are described as cheap, mobile, and accurate, possessing a range of at least 1,400 kilometers. The Kheibar Shekan missiles are solid-fuel, medium-range weapons, designed for quick loading onto trucks or other vehicles, which helps them evade warplanes targeting launch sites. This capability differs significantly from older Iranian missiles that required a lengthy prelaunch fueling process. The missiles also boast higher maneuverability, making them harder to destroy than other missile types. Some variants feature small engines in the nose section that carry the explosive warhead, detaching during the final phase of flight to adjust direction as the missile approaches its target at approximately 10,000 kilometers per hour.
Iran has combined Kheibar Shekan launches with high-speed attack drones and less sophisticated missiles. These attacks have targeted radars supporting air defenses across the region and housing areas for US troops at bases throughout the Middle East. US officials have noted that Iran employs different flight paths, maneuvers, and speeds to confuse US defenses. While the US and its allies have shot down most of the Kheibar Shekans, one US official confirmed that some have successfully reached their targets.
Army Gen. Joseph Votel, who has led US Central Command, observed Iran's learning process, stating, “I think what it tells us is Iran is paying attention, and they’re learning, and they’re looking at ways that they can get at us.” He added that Iran possesses a "well-developed drone capability" and a "missile program, a rocket program for a long period of time," indicating significant expertise. Fabian Hinz, an independent missile expert, suggested Iran likely studied previous launches to maximize the chances of their missiles reaching targets. Hinz noted, “Iran has seen what types of maneuvers are the most effective ones for overcoming missile defense. Every single combat use gives you some sort of data, so that’s very useful for the Iranians.”
The Costs of Intervention
The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran retaliated by firing across the Middle East at Gulf nations and US military bases in the region. Since February 28, 39 Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers and 23 civilians have been killed in ballistic missile attacks across Israel, with at least 7,693 more injured. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported 18 US soldiers killed during this period. Israel claimed it shot down most of the Kheibar Shekans fired at it by Iran, though Iran asserted it targeted the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and conducted another missile attack last month.
While Iran hasn't disclosed the cost of a Kheibar Shekan, analysts informed the Wall Street Journal that these missiles are considerably cheaper than the US and Israeli interceptors used to stop them. Interceptors can cost between $2 million and $15 million, depending on the system. This significant cost disparity highlights the economic burden placed on states defending against these attacks.
A ceasefire deal was announced on April 7 and subsequently went into effect on April 8, bringing a temporary halt to the immediate hostilities.