Iran's Hormuz Threats Put Gulf Security on Edge

On Monday, Iranian military officials warned that any renewed U.S. attack would draw a stronger response. Tehran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, while its Revolutionary Guards Navy reported that a tanker struck a mine south of the waterway. The Guards warned that vessels switching off navigation systems while passing through Hormuz would be considered “hostile vessels.”

Hormuz and the military threat

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of creating insecurity in the strait during a joint press conference in Tehran with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. “The war imposed by the United States and the Zionist regime (Israel), combined with the economic blockade, constitutes the principal source of insecurity in our region,” Araghchi said.

Iran says it controls the strategic waterway, where one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbons pass in normal times, and regularly targets vessels crossing without its authorization. Washington, meanwhile, maintains a naval counter-blockade on Iranian ports. On Sunday, the Revolutionary Guards Navy said an oil tanker struck a naval mine south of Hormuz, setting off an explosion and fire in its engine room.

UK Maritime Trade Operations reported a separate incident. Two unknown projectiles struck a southbound tug northeast of Khor Fakkan in the UAE, damaging the vessel and causing one minor casualty. The tug continued on its route.

Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi said the United States couldn’t start a new conflict. He claimed most U.S. bases in the region were inactive and American forces had moved hundreds of kilometers away from Iran. Revolutionary Guards deputy commander Mostafa Izadi said U.S. naval forces had moved approximately 700 kilometers away to avoid Iranian missiles, according to the Guards-affiliated Fars news agency. Senior Guards adviser Mohammadreza Naghdi said Iran’s missile facilities survived heavy bombardment and its strategic stockpiles remained intact.

Russia's talks and regional diplomacy

Lavrov arrived from Bahrain on Monday for his first visit to Iran since the war began. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the visit would focus on “regional and international developments.” The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov was scheduled to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and hold talks with Araghchi.

Russia and Iran rank among the world’s most heavily sanctioned nations, and their military and economic cooperation has grown since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Lavrov said Moscow’s efforts were “aimed at preventing the return of a large-scale war.” In early October, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pezeshkian that Moscow was prepared to contribute to mediation.

The war began in February with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. A cease-fire followed in April, then a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding in June, but hostilities in and around Hormuz continued. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Lavrov’s talks were expected to focus on “ways to resolve the acute international crisis triggered by the unlawful aggression of the US and Israel against Iran.”

Proxy threats and security warnings

The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned continued Iranian missile and drone attacks against member states and demanded they stop. It called for maritime security and freedom of navigation through Hormuz to be restored. The council said any understandings with Tehran should address Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, drones and support for proxies, while GCC states should take part in negotiations affecting their security.

The U.S. State Department urged Americans across the Middle East to exercise heightened vigilance, warning that Houthi attacks could disrupt flights and airspace. In a separate warning, the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh said Iran and groups supporting it could target American interests overseas. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense said the danger had passed in the southern Najran region after an earlier alert over a potential threat. That alert followed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and a strike on a Yemeni government military camp in Shabwa province.

Germany summoned Iran’s ambassador over attempted attacks targeting Josef Schuster, head of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, and Volker Beck, chairman of the German-Israeli Society. “Attacks on Jewish life and on those who defend it are something we will not tolerate - anywhere, and especially not in Germany,” the German Foreign Ministry wrote on X. The ministry said the attempted attacks would carry legal consequences.