Israel's military went on high alert in Gaza after intelligence indicated Hamas intends to attack Israeli forces on the anniversary of the October 7 massacre. Defense Minister Israel Katz announced the order Tuesday, one day before the assault’s third anniversary.
Katz's office said the instruction came "in light of intelligence regarding Hamas's intentions to attempt to carry out attacks and terror operations against our forces in Gaza on that day." The statement carried a blunt warning: "If, heaven forbid, our forces are harmed, the ones who will pay the heavy price will be Hamas and the population of Gaza -- beyond all proportion."
The Security Picture
The alert rests on a specific intelligence assessment, not a generic precaution. Israeli officials say Hamas wants to mark the date with fresh violence against soldiers deployed inside Gaza, an attack plan that would violate a ceasefire declared last October if it materialized.
The date carries enormous weight in Israel. Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack was the deadliest day in the country's history, killing 1,221 people, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures. Militants also dragged 251 hostages into Gaza, 44 of them already dead. That’s the baseline against which Israeli commanders judge every Hamas threat, and it explains why a single credible warning can put an entire military on alert.
The prime minister reinforced the message a day earlier. At a state ceremony on Monday marking three years since the attack, Benjamin Netanyahu said there would be "no Hamas rule in Gaza." He vowed to keep targeting anyone involved in the attack or anyone who held hostages.
The Human Cost of the War
The Gaza campaign has devastated civilians. Israel launched its military offensive in response to the attack, leaving most of Gaza in ruins and killing more than 74,200 people, according to Gaza's health ministry. The ministry operates under Hamas authority, though the United Nations considers its figures reliable. Since the ceasefire was declared last October, Israeli forces have killed more than 1,440 people in Gaza, the ministry said.
Those figures don't distinguish between combatants and civilians, and they come from a body answerable to the very organization that started the war. Katz's warning, delivered in that context, shows how Israeli leaders view Hamas: a group that embeds itself among a civilian population and then plans operations from within it. His language about the population paying a price "beyond all proportion" is deterrence rhetoric, aimed at changing Hamas's calculation before the anniversary arrives.
What Comes Next
The next 24 hours will test whether the intelligence was accurate and whether the alert deters or merely delays. Israeli forces remain inside Gaza under a ceasefire that hasn't ended the killing. Netanyahu's insistence on no Hamas rule leaves open the question of who governs the territory if the group is dislodged; neither Tuesday's statement nor Monday's ceremony answered it.
The base reporting for this article couldn't retrieve a Reuters account of a Gaza plan and aid deliveries, so those elements aren't addressed here.
Why This Matters: A ceasefire that Israel's own defense minister says Hamas plans to violate on the anniversary of the worst massacre in the country's history shows how fragile the current arrangement is. Hamas hasn't abandoned its aim of attacking Israeli forces, and Israel's deterrent threats reflect a state that believes it can't afford another surprise. For Gazans, the stakes are just as high, since Katz has tied the safety of the civilian population to Hamas's behavior. Any lasting settlement will have to answer a basic security question: who stops Hamas from rebuilding and striking again.