The nation's defense capabilities face potential shortages due to a surge in massive arms exports, according to human rights lawyer Eitay Mack. Mack warned that Israel could find itself in a situation similar to that of the Americans, where full arms independence exists but faces shortages due to extensive international sales. This assessment directly challenges the stated aim of providing for all national defense needs.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously contended that Israel needs to be a "Super Sparta" and provide for its own defense requirements. In his latest comment on the matter, Netanyahu spoke about an additional 350 billion shekels, or $120 billion, in Israeli arms production in the coming decade. However, Mack stated that in practice, the trend in the data shows the bulk of Israeli defense production is directed toward exports for economic and political reasons.
Data from the Defense Ministry, obtained by TheMarker business newspaper in response to a freedom of information request, reveals a significant increase in approvals for air defense system exports. In 2025, the ministry's Defense Export Control Agency granted Israeli companies air defense export licenses for 20 countries, a substantial rise from seven countries in 2024 and 12 countries in 2023. Marketing permits, which allow companies to present systems or invite clients for demonstrations, also surged to 74 last year, up from 56 in 2024 and 19 in 2023.
The United Arab Emirates has emerged as a key recipient of these systems, with foreign media reports highlighting the popularity of Israeli air defense in the Gulf and beyond. The market for these systems has expanded to include nations from Morocco to Azerbaijan. The Financial Times reported that the Emiratis have acquired Iron Beam from Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and that Elbit Systems rushed the Spectro drone detection system to the UAE. Axios reported that Israel deployed the short-range Iron Dome in the UAE during the current war with Iran. Germany has also expanded its deal to acquire the long-range Arrow system made by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), while Slovakia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and Morocco have purchased IAI's Barak air defense system.
The monetary value of exports from Israel's two main air defense players, Rafael and IAI, jumped 25 percent last year. Considering the numbers for Elbit, Rafael, and IAI, Israel's total defense exports are expected to reach $18 billion for 2025, marking a 20 percent rise and $3 billion higher than in the previous year.
Elite Interests Drive Policy
The rising number of licenses stems from both an increase in applications and a deliberate Defense Ministry policy. This surge is notable as other arms industry sectors, such as drones, training, ammunition, intelligence, and cyber capabilities, have not seen similar increases in license issuance. Drones, for example, saw only a 6 percent rise in marketing permits granted, with no increase in export licenses.
The Defense Ministry's more lenient policy on such sales is part of a reform led by the ministry's director general, Amir Baram. A committee addressing this issue submitted its recommendations at the end of last year, and these are expected to bolster the current trend of increased exports. This policy is further reflected in the small number of licenses suspended or canceled in 2025, with only 99 export approvals canceled last year, compared with 174 in 2024.
Further evidence of eased export conditions was revealed in data received Tuesday by the Movement for Freedom of Information. This data shows that out of 6,648 applications for defense export licenses for products and knowledge, only 19 applications were denied by the Defense Ministry. Hiddai Negev, executive director of the Movement for Freedom of Information, stated that the committee approving defense exports of advanced technologies and weapons operates "in the dark" and does not publish a public report. Negev added that this "dismal figure shows that the committee functions as a rubber stamp, approving over 99 percent of defense export applications," indicating "no real oversight or control over the defense technologies that Israel exports to problematic regions around the world."
Currently, approximately 70 percent of Israel's defense production is exported. Human rights lawyer Eitay Mack emphasized that sales abroad stem from the economic needs of the companies making the systems and from the fact that Israel's diplomatic relations depend on it.
The Cost to the People
The Defense Ministry's policy, designed to remove barriers to these exports, raises questions about the nation's ability to prioritize its own defense needs. Mack's analysis highlights a potential contradiction between the Prime Minister's calls for self-sufficiency and the practical reality of extensive exports driven by economic and political considerations.
The increase in the number of countries allowed for air defense exports also reflects a "PR boost" during the two and a half years these systems have defended the Israeli home front. The acquisition of Israeli defense systems is perceived as "less problematic" by buyers, potentially influencing the export drive amidst global boycott attempts related to Palestinian civilian casualties in the war on Hamas in Gaza. This global market dynamic appears to shape national defense policy.
The nation's defense posture, therefore, appears increasingly intertwined with the economic imperatives of defense companies and the demands of international diplomacy, potentially at the expense of domestic security.