Israeli security officials told Walla on Wednesday that the Middle East is approaching the risk of a broader escalation as multiple flashpoints converge across the region. Their warning reads like a map of state power in motion: the US and Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, Hezbollah’s military buildup, the deadlock in Gaza and tensions in the West Bank. Ordinary people sit under all of it.
The State Monopoly Spreads
The officials said the danger is not limited to isolated incidents, but could spread as one arena affects another. That’s the logic of militarized rule. One front bleeds into the next, and civilians are left to absorb the shock while governments and armed movements trade threats, sanctions and fire.
They pointed to the confrontation between the US and Iran, the activation of Iranian proxies, Saudi Arabia's campaign against the Houthis, Hezbollah's military buildup, the deadlock in Gaza and tensions in the West Bank. The Israeli defense establishment, they said, is monitoring the different arenas and preparing for the possibility that deterioration in one could affect the region as a whole. The language is clinical. The machinery is not.
US President Donald Trump is eager to bring the conflict with Iran to an end before the midterm elections. According to assessments by Israeli security officials, he is heightening tensions in the Middle East with threats against Iran in an effort to demonstrate seriousness ahead of a possible return to the negotiating table. Israeli sources said mediators between Tehran and Washington have so far failed to produce positive developments. Officials broadly assess that the Iranians recognize Trump's reluctance to return to active fighting and are therefore holding firm to their uncompromising position: refusing to abandon the nuclear project and refusing to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump is also continuing to tighten economic sanctions on Iran and threaten those cooperating with Tehran in an effort to revive its faltering economy. The Iranian regime is operating on several fronts, including an attempt to maneuver between severe US economic sanctions and the possibility that regime opponents could take to the streets to protest the difficult conditions. At the same time, the Iranian regime continues preparing for war in several arenas. It has begun producing surface-to-surface missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles and is also preparing for a possible ground invasion.
Rulers, Proxies, and Populations
The article said the Iranian regime under Mojtaba Khamenei continues to pursue a hard-line and uncompromising approach toward the US and Israel while simultaneously strengthening its relationship with its "proxies": Hezbollah on Israel's border, the Houthis in Yemen against Saudi Arabia and possibly against Israel in the foreseeable future, and pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq against the pro-Western Iraqi government and, in the foreseeable future, against American and Israeli interests. The concern, the officials said, is that Iran could decide to escalate the region gradually and call on its proxies, which receive funding, weapons, intelligence and training from Tehran, to join the confrontation.
Saudi Arabia received a lesson from the Americans over the past week, the article said. Senior Saudi officials were alarmed by the Houthis' broad attack on the capital Riyadh, Mecca, facilities belonging to Aramco, one of the world's largest energy companies, and by a ground incursion toward the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which threatened Red Sea shipping routes and the passage of oil tankers. According to Israeli security officials, the Saudis called the Americans, demanding immediate assistance. Trump held consultations and ultimately decided not to strike the Houthis, instead offering intelligence or assistance with weapons systems. The article said the Saudis remain alone in the campaign for now, and that the arena is fragile. If the Houthis feel backed into a corner, they could also attack Israel, where American interests, including bases, are located.
Hezbollah remains restrained, but it is building its capabilities for a future war with Iranian support, with a particular focus on aircraft and fiber-optic drones. The article said that if Tehran orders Hezbollah to join a campaign, Israel could find itself under attack from the north. Air and ground strikes are carried out almost daily against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Some strikes target operatives and field commanders preparing attacks against Israel, while others are aimed at Hezbollah's military reconstruction efforts and terrorist infrastructure.
Gaza, the West Bank, and the Security Trap
Negotiations by the Board of Peace with Hamas over disarming in the Gaza Strip and transferring control to a third party have reached a dead end. Hamas has so far limited itself to hollow statements and a general agreement to hand weapons over to a third party, while Israel firmly opposes any arrangement under which Hamas remains a legitimate organization that retains weapons in the Gaza Strip. Senior IDF officials are insisting on adopting the "Ali Taher Ridge" model in Gaza City. Under this approach, IDF troops would maneuver into the heart of the city and dismantle all major terrorist infrastructure above and below ground that Hamas has built over more than 20 years. According to assessments in the defense establishment, a decision on this issue will be made after the Israeli elections and the US midterm elections. At this stage, the concern is that Hamas or other terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip could attempt attacks. High alert is therefore being maintained along the Yellow Line.
The West Bank is the arena causing the greatest concern. The area and the Jordan Valley are known as particularly volatile arenas during the holiday period. Recently, nationalist crime has added to tensions, alongside growing friction between the Israeli and Palestinian populations. Central Command is concerned that any incident could ignite the area and lead to revenge attacks or terrorist attacks. The IDF Operations Directorate has therefore reinforced the West Bank with battalions and additional units taking part in protecting communities and major roads.
In the background is the "turning the guns" scenario, referring to the possibility that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, could die and succession struggles could move from rhetoric to violence, creating chaos and gunfire directed at Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers. According to senior Central Command officials, there are no signs at this stage of "turning the guns." However, succession struggles have already begun, and there are senior disappointed and frustrated figures in the West Bank, the Gulf and the Gaza Strip who are pulling strings and trying, among other things, to turn the West Bank into an arena in which terrorism is mobilized.
The Syrian arena is considered relatively quiet and stable. Division 210, commanded by Brig.-Gen. Yair Palai, is taking the initiative in the Syrian arena. When intelligence is received about arms dealers in the area or elements hostile to Israel, the division launches an operation. Israel's borders with Jordan and Egypt continue to serve as focal points for weapons smuggling, and the concern is that these routes could one day become infiltration routes for terrorists.
The maritime arena has also been upgraded since Maj.-Gen. Eyal Barel took command of the Israel Navy, with additional vessels and a more proactive operational approach across greater distances and broader areas of operation in preparation for any scenario intended to challenge the IDF, with particular emphasis on the missile boat flotilla and the submarine flotilla. The region keeps getting more heavily armed. The people underneath it get no say.