Israel Election Deadlock Leaves Power Brokers Bargaining

President Isaac Herzog began consulting Israeli party representatives on Wednesday after the October 27 election left neither bloc with the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member parliament. The next government will take shape through negotiations among political leaders, while Herzog has broad legal discretion over whom to ask to form it.

The seat arithmetic

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats. Rival Gadi Eisenkot's bloc has 48, while Arab-minority parties hold 19. Six parties opposed to Netanyahu won a combined 67 seats, including the 19 seats held by the Arab-majority Joint List and Ra'am. Eisenkot could reach a majority by allying with them, though some opposition figures have balked at relying on non-Jewish lawmakers.

Netanyahu's Likud received 27 seats, according to the report on the election panel dispute. He called for a "broad national government" with himself at its head. Opposition leaders rejected a unity government under Netanyahu, citing his character and his failure to prevent the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack. During a strategy meeting, Eisenkot and other opposition leaders vowed to move quickly to form a government and remove Netanyahu, but they didn't say how.

Yousef Jabareen, head of the largest Arab-majority party in the next parliament, told AFP the opposition needed to accept "political reality" and join together to remove Netanyahu. Netanyahu has warned Jewish Israelis that the opposition would work with Arab parties, which he accuses of backing Hamas. Arab-Israeli party leaders have condemned the October 7 attack without describing Hamas as a terror group. The numbers give those parties influence. Whether their votes translate into a government role depends on the negotiations.

Herzog began his consultations with smaller parties, including ultranationalist Religious Zionism, before meetings with Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar, a broad centre-to-centre-right opposition party launched by the former military chief. His office said he was starting with smaller parties to hear all views. The consultations were scheduled to run for two days, starting at 5 p.m. (1500 GMT).

The mandate and the machinery

Herzog has said he wants to avoid a new election and called for "fresh thinking." His office said: "It is important to exhaust every option, broaden the dialogue and explore every path that may advance the process." After the election, he said, "I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind." He can choose the candidate he thinks has the best chance of succeeding, rather than necessarily selecting the leader of the largest party.

Once Herzog gives a lawmaker the mandate, that person has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. If the first candidate fails, Herzog can assign the mandate to someone else. If that attempt also fails, a majority of lawmakers can nominate a candidate within 21 days; otherwise, Israel would hold another election. Israel held five elections between 2019 and 2022 after repeated deadlocks. The process lays out parliamentary steps, but it doesn't guarantee that they will produce a government.

A vote under dispute

The Central Elections Committee chief, Noam Sohlberg, rejected outgoing coalition members' attempts to delay publication of the official results, scheduled for Wednesday. Sixteen representatives of parties in Netanyahu's bloc, which held a majority on the outgoing committee, asked the committee to discuss suspected vote-buying by several Arab suspects and demanded Shin Bet intelligence on alleged voter fraud before publication. Their letter said: "We see no possibility of publishing the election results before a discussion is held and the information we have requested is provided."

The allegations that Qatar or other foreign powers secretly funded efforts to increase Arab voter turnout and influence the election had not been substantiated. Sohlberg said the election's overall integrity wasn't in question, that officials conducted the vote properly and that no evidence showed an investigation would affect the results. The election panel said it audited 9,069 polling stations after complaints and that the announced results "accurately reflect the will of the voters." Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara said she wouldn't question anyone without evidence. Likud accused her of trying to "obstruct the investigation," while Eisenkot accused Likud of attempting a "pogrom against democracy."

The committee confirms valid vote totals and allocates them into Knesset seats. Sohlberg said it had no authority to withhold certification or intervene in an ongoing investigation. The committee's Wednesday meeting was set for 9 a.m.; neither the panel nor anyone else had legal authority to delay the results or demand evidence about alleged wrongdoing. After officials present the results to Herzog, he will meet representatives of the 11 parties in the next Knesset and grant the mandate to the person receiving the most endorsements from party leaders. The institutions determine who counts the votes. Political bargaining over who gets to govern continues.