Leaders Fly to Shenzhen While Trade Bans Squeeze Workers

Beijing has cut supplies of rare earth minerals to Japanese firms, warned its citizens off travel to Japan, and refused to hold ministerial talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government. Next week, she flies to Shenzhen anyway. Deputy chief cabinet secretary Masanao Ozaki announced Friday that Takaichi will visit the Philippines and China from November 16 to 19, her first trip to China since taking office about one year ago.

Who Has the Power

The quarrel has a clear origin. In November last year, just weeks after she became prime minister, Takaichi suggested Japan may intervene in any attack on Taiwan, an island China claims as its territory. China reacted furiously. Beijing told its citizens not to travel to Japan and imposed trade restrictions that have reportedly led to big drops in supplies of vital rare earth minerals to Japanese firms.

Nobody on Taiwan was asked whether they wanted Tokyo's protection. Nobody in Japan voted on a hypothetical war. A prime minister floated the idea of military intervention, and a rival capital answered with economic punishment. The people who live under both governments weren't consulted at any point.

Who Gets Crushed

The base article doesn't name the workers or small manufacturers feeling the rare earth shortfall, but it doesn't have to. Supplies of vital minerals to Japanese firms have dropped sharply, and in any supply squeeze the pressure runs downhill. Orders slow, hours get cut, and the people at the bottom of the production chain absorb the shock. Meanwhile Chinese citizens have been warned against travelling to Japan, one more border rule telling ordinary people where they may go.

The pattern repeats elsewhere. Relations between Tokyo and Moscow sit at a low point after a Japanese journalist was arrested in Russia on spying allegations last month and assets belonging to Japan Tobacco were seized there. A reporter sits in custody and a corporation's property gets confiscated. States settle their grudges with whatever hostages they can reach.

What They're Calling "Order"

At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, Ozaki said Takaichi will discuss "trade and investment, regional economic integration, economic and energy resilience, the digital economy" and present Japan's position on these matters. It's a menu of corporate priorities served up as diplomacy. Before Shenzhen she'll stop in Manila for a meeting of the 11-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, where a Quad meeting with the leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the US is being arranged on the sidelines.

Analysts say a bilateral summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping is very unlikely. Multiple Japanese media reported that Tokyo also asked Russia for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin at the gathering.

The tone from the top stays polished. Last month Takaichi called China an "important neighbour" and pledged a stable relationship in a policy address, while adding that Japan would "firmly assert our country's positions" and "strongly call for responsible behaviour." Xi sent condolences to the family of former prime minister Yasuo Fukuda after his death last month, calling him "a longtime friend of the Chinese people." In September, China's top diplomat Wang Yi said ties with Tokyo were "waiting to be normalised again."

Normalised. Ties between governments, waiting. The rare earth shortfalls and travel warnings aren't waiting for anyone's summit schedule, and every handshake in Shenzhen will take place in rooms the people paying the price will never enter.