Kansas Senate Fight Puts GOP Control and Farm Costs at Risk

President Donald Trump was set to headline a rally near Wichita on Monday as Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faced Democrat Adam Hamilton in a contest central to the battle for the Senate majority. The race is testing whether Republican strength in Kansas can withstand economic frustration among farmers and other voters.

Trump was expected to speak at 7 p.m. EDT. He was traveling to Kansas on Monday and Iowa later in the week to energize Republicans in the final weeks before the midterm elections. Republicans are spending money on Senate races in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa as concerns grow about voter enthusiasm. Trump won Kansas by 16 percentage points against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024, and Democrats haven't won a Kansas Senate election in 94 years.

Farm Costs and Voter Enthusiasm

Fifth-generation Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow said harvest season is “go time.” Farmers combine fields, haul crops to town and move livestock from summer pastures to winter homes. This year, he said, diesel prices are more than $2.50 per gallon higher than a year earlier, adding to pressure from rising costs, unpredictable markets and shrinking profits.

“It seems like it's coming at us from all directions,” said Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, which endorsed Marshall. He said economic frustration might not necessarily lead farmers to vote Democratic, but “I think it dampens the enthusiasm for agriculture producers to get to the polls.”

Diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon nationwide on Friday, more than 70% higher than a year earlier, according to motor club AAA. The increase comes during harvest, when farmers need fuel to run machinery and transport crops. “This is a time of year when we use a lot of fuel, and there just isn't much we can do,” Brunkow said. “The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected net farm income would decline 2.6% this year as production expenses rise 4.5%. Fuel and oil expenses alone were expected to jump nearly 30%, according to the agency's September forecast. Farmers have faced higher costs for diesel, fertilizer and seed amid refinery constraints and supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.

Immigration and Party Frustration

Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican state House majority leader, said frustration with the party was growing among GOP voters, including people who had supported Trump in multiple elections. Farmers understood that Trump's tariffs had hurt their businesses, he said, and were upset about the ongoing war with Iran. Recent immigration raids in western Kansas that detained more than 100 people had also made immigration a concern.

“We need a secure border — we can all agree on that,” Hineman said. “But we also need workable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need.” He said the traditional Kansas Republican argument that electing Democrats would empower the party's liberal wing was losing effectiveness with some voters, including himself.

“I am tired of being persuaded by charges that the boogeyman is going to get us,” Hineman said. “I am so fed up with the Republican Party and their willingness to play sycophant to our current commander in chief that I'm willing to consider alternatives.”

Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, Kansas, said Hamilton impressed her when he visited a local market to meet people, something she said she hadn't seen Marshall do. She had never voted for a Democrat, she said, but remained undecided. Rising health care and everyday expenses had added to her frustrations, along with trade agreements. “The Republicans haven't done the Midwest any favors with that,” she said.

Campaign Spending and Farm Aid

Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order easing limits on tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, which he said would save “millions” for farmers. The order followed a $12 billion aid package for farmers announced by the Trump administration in December. Brunkow said many farmers “thought it would be better” under Trump, though he thought most would still consider Trump the better choice in the 2024 election. “He's made some unforced errors,” Brunkow said. “Miscalculations, bad advice, that had unintended consequences.”

David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, said his group had monitored heavily agricultural states since summer and acknowledged concerns about declining enthusiasm. The group was spending millions of dollars for GOP candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere. “Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs,” McIntosh said. “The economic environment has not been good.”

Democrats see an opportunity in the economic frustrations, including in states where they have struggled to win statewide elections. Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat who lost reelection in 2024, said there was “no doubt” Democrats would perform better than expected in agricultural states. “These guys got to pay bills at the end of the month, and for a number of months now it's been hard to do,” Tester said. “This is way beyond politics.”