One in Five Trust Albanese. Why Would the Rest?

Just one in five voters say they still trust Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and 40 per cent of people blame the federal government for the cost-of-living crisis, according to polling released Sunday. Twenty per cent. That's the share of Australians who believe "what Albanese says and promises," down 6 percentage points since September.

Who Gets Crushed

The Resolve Political Monitor survey of 2250 voters, conducted November 2 to 7, found 22 per cent had lost trust in him, and 43 per cent said "I did not trust Albanese before this anyway" — up 9 points since September. Another 16 per cent were unsure. The fieldwork coincided with Albanese attending a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and the Reserve Bank lifting interest rates for the fifth time this year.

Five hikes. Interest rates now sit at an 18-year high of 4.85 per cent. September inflation came in at 4.3 per cent, higher than expected. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock talked about Australians feeling like they were in a recession. For people paying rent, mortgages and grocery bills, that wasn't a feeling to be talked about. It was Tuesday.

Cost of living remains the top priority for 41 per cent of voters. After a Melbourne Cup Day rate rise, 42 per cent of Resolve respondents held Labor responsible for the crisis. A quarter, 26 per cent, blamed international causes such as soaring oil prices and the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran. Seven per cent blamed the Reserve Bank, 5 per cent state governments and 3 per cent businesses. Twelve per cent were unsure.

Three per cent blamed businesses. Hold that number up to the light.

Who Has the Power

Treasurer Jim Chalmers insisted global factors were the chief drivers of inflation. The SMH reported that message has failed to cut through. Albanese's pre-emptive and thinly veiled criticism of the Reserve Bank's latest rate hike as a "blunt instrument" has not taken the heat off Labor either. The government points at the central bank, the central bank raises rates, and the people paying the bills get to watch the finger-pointing.

Then there's the $6 million grant to the Marrickville Golf Club in Albanese's own electorate of Grayndler. Resolve pollster Jim Reed said the PM is only trusted by a fifth of voters, in part because of being seen as distracted from priority issues like inflation, "but also the cumulative effect of surprise tax changes and the local grant program that have some voters questioning what's coming next."

The Election Trap

Here's the show on offer. An Australian Financial Review/Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll has Labor's primary vote down 2 points to 26 per cent and the Coalition up 4 points to 25 per cent, leaving the two major parties statistically tied and still trailing One Nation. The Australian reported One Nation at 28 per cent in that poll. In Resolve, Labor fell one point to 28 per cent, down from 34.6 per cent at the May 2025 election. The Coalition sat on 22 per cent, One Nation on 25 and the Greens on 13 after the switch of leader from Larissa Waters to David Shoebridge.

Preferred prime minister? Albanese on 29 per cent in Resolve, Angus Taylor on 25, Pauline Hanson on 24. AFR political editor Phillip Coorey wrote that it will take a few more polls to ascertain whether the existential crisis facing the Coalition parties was overstated, noting the numbers resemble Victoria a few months ago, when Labor, the Coalition and One Nation all had primary votes in the mid-20s.

The menu, in other words, is three-way mush at roughly a quarter each. Opposition frontbencher Dan Tehan told ABC's Insiders that Albanese, Chalmers and Energy Minister Chris Bowen "should be paying very close attention" to the US midterm results, saying people there "didn't feel like the government, the Trump administration, was really 100 per cent focused" on cost of living, and "I think it's exactly the same here in Australia." Albanese, in an ABC interview published Saturday, pointed to the Iran war and tariffs as key reasons for the Republicans' defeats.

So the pitch to the people paying 4.85 per cent: swap one set of managers for another, and watch both blame the weather. Nothing in the polling suggests anyone in either camp has answered what the 43 per cent who never trusted him in the first place already know. The rate rises keep coming. The promises keep expiring. And the next poll will just count who's least hated.