Brazil’s 12-month inflation hit 4.58% in September, topping the central bank’s 4.5% ceiling, while prediction markets put Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds of winning the presidency near 89%. The inflation figure tracks pressure on household budgets; the election figure comes from real-money bets, not a poll.
Household Costs and Market Bets
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics said prices rose 0.82% in September. Housing costs jumped 2.31% that month. The central bank’s reference dollar rate, known as the PTAX fixing, stood at 4.9892 reais on Friday 9 October, down from 5.0119 on Thursday and 5.2238 on Friday 2 October. At Friday’s rate, R$1,000 was about US$200.
At 00:35 ET on Saturday, Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 88.9% chance and Lula an 11.5% chance of winning Brazil’s presidency, with US$179.6 million traded. The guide says these figures turn real-money bets into live probabilities; they should be considered alongside polls and official results, not used in their place. It also says foreign residents don’t vote in the presidential runoff, scheduled for Sunday 25 October, as campaigning continues.
Other bets focused on central bank decisions and inflation. Polymarket put the chance of a 0.25-point cut in Brazil’s November central bank decision at 86.5%, with US$49,986 traded. For Colombia’s October central bank decision, the market gave no change a 61.5% chance, with US$35,280 traded. Argentina’s September inflation release had a 62.5% probability of a monthly rate between 1.9% and 2.1%, with US$31,453 traded.
Argentina’s country risk—the extra yield investors demand on Argentine dollar bonds—stood at 589 points on Friday 9 October, up from 588 on Thursday. On Friday afternoon, the country’s exchange rates ranged from Banco Nación’s official selling rate of 1,535 pesos per dollar to a CCL selling rate of 1,606.6. ARS 1,000,000 was about US$651 at the official sell rate and US$622 at the CCL sell rate.
Storm Exposure and State Power
Hurricane Simón reached Category 3 strength on Friday night. Mexican forecasters expected it to reach the Colima–Jalisco coast on Sunday 11 October. Mexican media, citing the U.S. National Hurricane Center, reported sustained winds of 195 km/h and placed the storm’s centre about 245 km south of Manzanillo, Colima. Forecasts projected landfall between Puerto Vallarta in Jalisco and Manzanillo in Colima as a Category 3 or 4 storm. The exact landfall hour remained uncertain, and the report said the storm’s track and strength could change.
Infobae forecast 150 to 250 mm of rain along the Guerrero and Michoacán coasts. The guide advised travelers with flights or hotel stays on the Colima, Jalisco or Nayarit coast to check with airlines or hotels and follow local civil protection instructions.
On Wednesday 7 October, President Keiko Fujimori announced a unified command that brings together the Armed Forces and the National Police, Andina reported. The command includes 1,350 personnel, a control centre at Army headquarters in Lima and an elite search-and-capture group. Fujimori also set up a Special Commission Against Crime and promised to expel foreign criminals “in record time.” Authorities published no budget or start date, and no legal change, number or deadline for expulsions had been published.
Rates, Holidays and Deadlines
Monday 12 October is a public holiday in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia. Brazil’s stock exchange, B3, and bank branches will close, but banking apps will still work. Brazil’s September inflation release was followed on the calendar by Argentina’s September inflation release from INDEC on Tuesday 13 October, with a 2.0% consensus forecast. Brazil’s October mid-month inflation release was scheduled for Friday 23 October, with a 4.6% consensus forecast.
Colombian permanent-resident visa holders whose visas were issued under earlier rules must transfer them by Saturday 31 October 2026, the Foreign Ministry reiterated. Applicants complete the process online, and the ministry advised them to use its official site without intermediaries.