Colombia’s central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on Wednesday, September 30. Markets had expected the rate to stay at 12%. Banco de la República made the decision by majority vote, with the figures offering a plain explanation: inflation hit 6.1% in June and 6.2% in August, far outside the bank’s 2% to 4% target range.
The move leads Thursday’s Latin America daily guide from The Rio Times, which tracks markets, elections and residency rules across the region. The bank will release minutes Monday, October 5. Its next rate meeting is October 30.
Central Banks, Currencies and Prices
Colombia wasn’t the only place where monetary policy and prices dominated the day. Brazil’s PTAX fixing on September 30 came in at 5.1803 / 5.1809 per dollar. The real strengthened 0.76% from Tuesday’s 5.2204 close, ending a run of six weaker fixings. The Ibovespa rose about 1.4% to 186,340. The guide lists the Selic at 14.00% on its market board, though a separate section puts it at 13.75%.
Colombia’s TRM was 3,312.84 pesos per dollar for October 1, down from 3,341.23 on September 30. Mexico’s Banxico FIX stood at 18.0692 per dollar on Wednesday. Chile’s dollar observado was 972.60.
Chile’s labor market remains the weak spot. Unemployment reached 9.6% in the June–August quarter, its highest level since May 2021 and up 1.0 percentage point in twelve months. At the same time, the government’s 2027 budget raises spending 1.5%.
Argentina’s Fiscal Reset Continues
Argentina’s October price adjustments took effect October 1, and they were modest by monthly standards. Buenos Aires bus fares and tolls rose 3.7%. Residential gas rose an average 2.46%, while water in the capital region rose 2.17%. Electricity distribution rose 2.41% at Edenor and 2.34% at Edesur. Pensions rose 1.66%. Quarterly rents adjusted by the ICL index rose 6.72%.
The guide reports that state jobs have fallen by 72,440 under Milei, according to INDEC data. A bill called Inocencia Fiscal II would cut tax fines 25%. Country risk stood at 607, compared with 490 two weeks earlier. The blue dollar traded at 1,540 / 1,560 on Wednesday, and the MEP selling rate was 1,548.7.
The minimum pension is AR$435,748.51, or AR$505,748.51 with a AR$70,000 supplement—about US$333 at Wednesday’s wholesale rate of 1,517.
Politics, Elections and Institutions
Brazil and Peru both vote Sunday, October 4. Brazil has 158,745,463 registered voters, with a runoff set for October 25 if needed. A Datafolha poll from September 24 had Lula at 40 and Flávio at 36, while AtlasIntel’s final wave showed a 50–50 runoff. TV Globo scheduled its final debate for October 1 at 21:30 Brasília time. Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema were confirmed. Lula hadn’t confirmed as of Wednesday evening. Peru’s regional and municipal elections will fill 13,148 posts.
In Bolivia, authorities detained Attorney General Roger Mariaca overnight, and his office called the detention illegal. The guide says the United States had revoked his visa two days earlier over alleged narco links. A state of exception banning blockades runs through December 17. Evo Morales’s deadline for repealing government decrees expires Saturday, October 3. The International Monetary Fund board is expected to vote on Bolivia’s programme Friday, October 2, with a first disbursement reported at around US$250 million.
Mexico’s Senate passed a foreign-investment reform 65–30 overnight. In a separate vote, a constitutional reform barring dual nationals from the presidency, governorships and Mexico City’s mayoralty passed 86–42 on Tuesday. A majority of the 32 state legislatures must still ratify it.
Hurricane Rachel strengthened to 90 mph and moved away from mainland Mexico. Authorities dropped coastal watches and warnings. Another 2 to 4 inches of rain remained possible along parts of the Pacific coast.
Why This Matters: Colombia’s surprise hike shows a central bank still fighting inflation that won’t settle inside its target band. Borrowers and businesses there now face a higher cost of money. Argentina’s figures point to a government shrinking its payroll and weighing lower tax penalties, while country risk has climbed from 490 to 607 in two weeks. Chile pairs 9.6% unemployment with higher state spending. In Bolivia, an IMF vote tied to roughly US$250 million comes amid a state of exception and a Morales deadline. Investors and expats are watching whether governments tighten budgets or lean on spending, and whether institutions hold up under political pressure.