Crime and immigration concerns are reshaping Latin America's political landscape, propelling conservative candidates to power even as regional homicide rates have declined more than 5% compared with 2024. The shift marks a dramatic reversal from the start of the decade 6 years ago, when progressive politicians dominated after pandemic-era inequities fueled public anger.
The Security Shift
Voters across the region are rejecting left-wing governance in favor of leaders promising immediate results on public safety. In Colombia, pro-Trump businessman Abelardo de la Espriella topped polls ahead of Sunday's runoff election, modeling his campaign after El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele. Peru's Keiko Fujimori reached a June 7 presidential runoff on a law-and-order platform, vowing to deploy the military in prisons and along borders. Costa Ricans elected conservative populist Laura Fernández 5 months ago for her tough-on-crime stance, while Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura swept December's election 7 months ago after Trump endorsed him as a partner against "narco-communists."
The political transformation reflects mounting frustration with rising crime rates in specific countries, particularly extortion, which has increased fivefold in Peru over the past five years. Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America organization, said only the right has offered short-term security solutions that make voters "feel safer in six months" even if they have to "sacrifice democracy and human rights." He contrasted this with left-wing proposals like community violence prevention programs, better police training and judicial reforms that take longer to work. "It's absolutely what you're supposed to be doing, but people's patience runs out," Isacson said.
The Crime Reality
Latin America and the Caribbean last year saw their combined average homicide rate drop to about 17.6 per 100,000 people, according to InSight Crime, a think tank focused on organized crime in the Americas. But significant exceptions exist. Drug-fueled killings increased in Peru and Colombia, the world's top cocaine producers, as well as in neighboring Ecuador. Authorities tallied 2,400 homicides in Peru and 14,780 in Colombia last year, the most in each country since at least 2020. Killings rose 31% in Ecuador year-on-year, to 9,216.
Gangs are blamed for much of the violence that began soaring in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic, as cartels from Mexico, Colombia and the Balkans expanded their operations and hired locals. Their territorial disputes include prisons, where hundreds of inmates have been killed since 2021. Ecuadorian authorities recorded more than 16,100 cases of extortion last year, down from 23,000 in 2024, though experts say it's an underreported crime.
Chile's Transformation
4 years ago, Chilean voters rejected ultra-conservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast in favor of ex-President Gabriel Boric, a young, tattooed former student protest leader. Last year, fears over rising crime and its frequent association in media with the country's growing population of Venezuelan immigrants returned Kast to power. Chile, long one of Latin America's safest countries, witnessed an unprecedented explosion of carjackings, kidnappings and shoot-outs as Venezuelan crime syndicates like the Tren de Aragua gang infiltrated human trafficking networks.
Chile's homicide rate rose by 30% from 2021 to 2022, peaking at 6.7 per 100,000 people, according to the Interior Ministry. It has since dropped but has stayed above pre-2021 levels. Kidnappings have increased by nearly 180% over the past four years. Drawing inspiration from Bukele, whose mega-prisons in El Salvador he toured while campaigning, Kast beat his Communist opponent in December with pledges to build a massive border wall, toughen prison conditions for gang members and deport hundreds of thousands of migrants without legal status.
Governing Realities
Recently elected politicians' hard-line ambitions have collided with the practicalities of governing complex and cash-strapped democracies. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa campaigned 3 years ago on locking up gang leaders on barges and building mega-prisons. He abandoned the floating prisons proposal after taking office, and it took his government until November to open the first mega-prison. Beatriz García Nice, policy analyst for the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, said, "Building mega-prisons hasn't been that easy or that straightforward because the country is in a very bad state financially and because President Daniel Noboa still sees himself as a democrat."
Nearly three months into Kast's tenure, pollsters said a skeptical public couldn't tell the difference between his security crackdown and that of his left-wing predecessor. His government had organized only two deportation flights after promising to immediately round up and expel Chile's more than 300,000 immigrants without legal status. Last month, he came under fire for calling the mass deportation promise "a metaphor." In a June 1 address, Kast proposed new security measures, including banning those convicted of attacking police from receiving social benefits. "Governing, as many of you know, means taking responsibility for reality, especially when it's difficult," he said, adding, "I'm proceeding step by step because this isn't something that happens overnight."
Eduardo Moncada, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, said, "The thinking is often, 'democracy hasn't been able to keep me and my family safe, so maybe democracy is part of the problem.'" The left faces a major challenge in many countries after presiding over sluggish economies, corruption scandals and failed promises of social reform. Even progressives such as Jeannette Jara in Chile and Roberto Sánchez in Peru have shifted with the political tide. Uruguay's president, Yamandú Orsi, called Bukele's model an example worthy of further study.
Why This Matters:
The region's political realignment demonstrates how public safety concerns override other policy considerations when citizens feel immediately threatened. Voters are choosing leaders who promise swift action over those proposing systemic reforms, even when overall crime statistics show improvement. The challenge for newly elected conservative leaders lies in delivering results within democratic constraints while managing limited budgets and institutional checks. Their ability to balance campaign promises with governing realities will determine whether this rightward shift represents a sustainable political transformation or merely reflects temporary frustration with left-wing governance. The trend also reveals growing skepticism about democratic institutions' capacity to address urgent security needs, a concern that transcends ideology when families feel unsafe in their own communities.