A dramatic political realignment is reshaping Latin America as escalating crime rates and immigration concerns drive voters toward conservative candidates promising decisive action on public safety. The shift marks a stark reversal from the progressive wave that swept the region earlier this decade, when left-wing leaders captured power in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru by capitalizing on pandemic-era economic inequities.
While regional homicide rates have broadly declined compared with a decade ago, spikes in specific countries and a regionwide surge in extortion have created fertile ground for conservative populists. These candidates are winning elections by pledging tougher security measures modeled after El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, and framing migrants as security threats—messages that have earned endorsements from U.S. President Donald Trump and energized frustrated electorates.
Election Results Reflect Security Concerns
In Colombia, where renewed conflict has engulfed rural areas, pro-Trump businessman Abelardo de la Espriella topped polls ahead of Sunday's runoff election, explicitly following Bukele's approach. In Peru, where extortion has increased fivefold in the past five years, Keiko Fujimori advanced to a June 7, 2026 presidential runoff on a law-and-order platform. Campaigning under the slogan "Peru with Order," Fujimori won the largest vote share in April's first round, promising to deploy the military in prisons and along borders while invoking the legacy of her late father, former President Alberto Fujimori. Results of the June 7, 2026 runoff showed her in a technical tie with nationalist Roberto Sánchez, the political heir of imprisoned former leader Castillo.
Costa Ricans, confronting record drug-related killings, elected conservative populist Laura Fernández in February 2026 for her tough-on-crime platform. Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura swept December 2025's election after Trump endorsed him as a partner against "narco-communists." In Chile, José Antonio Kast returned to power in December 2025, handily defeating his Communist opponent with pledges to build a massive border wall, toughen prison conditions for gang members, and deport hundreds of thousands of migrants without legal status. Voters overlooked Kast's opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage rights and his defense of Augusto Pinochet's dictatorship in exchange for his promises of safety.
Even progressive leaders have adjusted to the political climate. Jeannette Jara in Chile and Sánchez in Peru have shifted with the political tide. Uruguay's president, Yamandú Orsi, called Bukele's model an example worthy of further study. The center-left Guatemalan government declared a state of emergency to crack down on gang violence this year and welcomed the Trump administration's help targeting drug traffickers.
Crime Statistics Drive Political Change
Chile, long one of Latin America's safest countries, witnessed an unprecedented explosion of violence as Venezuelan crime syndicates like the Tren de Aragua gang exploited mass migration to infiltrate human trafficking networks following the pandemic. Chile's homicide rate rose by 30%, to a peak of 6.7 per 100,000 people from 2021 to 2022, according to the Interior Ministry. It has since dropped but has stayed above pre-2021 levels. Kidnappings have increased by nearly 180% over the past four years. Fears over rising crime and its frequent association in media with the country's growing population of Venezuelan immigrants played into Kast's electoral success.
Latin America and the Caribbean last year saw their combined average homicide rate drop by more than 5% compared to 2024, with the median rate reaching about 17.6 per 100,000 people, according to InSight Crime, a think tank focused on organized crime in the Americas. However, drug-fueled killings increased in Peru and Colombia, the world's top cocaine producers, as well as in neighboring Ecuador. Last year, authorities tallied 2,400 homicides in Peru and 14,780 in Colombia, which were the most in each country since at least 2020. Killings rose 31% in Ecuador year-on-year, to 9,216. Ecuadorian authorities also recorded more than 16,100 cases of extortion last year, down from 23,000 in 2024, though experts say it is an underreported crime.
Implementation Challenges Emerge
Nearly three months into Kast's tenure, pollsters said a skeptical public could not tell the difference between his security crackdown and that of his left-wing predecessor. His government had organized only two deportation flights after promising to immediately round up and expel Chile's more than 300,000 immigrants without legal status. A different, more sheepish tone had crept into his speeches. Last month, he came under fire for calling the mass deportation promise "a metaphor." Even as he pitched new security measures in a June 1, 2026 address, including banning those convicted of attacking police from receiving social benefits, he tried to whittle down his supporters' outsize expectations. "Governing, as many of you know, means taking responsibility for reality, especially when it's difficult," he said. "I'm proceeding step by step because this isn't something that happens overnight."
Enrique Roig, vice president of the nonprofit Human Rights First and a former State Department official, said, "You have an emergent right wing that is very much in collaboration across the region and with the U.S. through the MAGA movement, which has also used crime as a rallying cry for political mobilization." He added, "It's easier to sell locking people up than it is to deal with the reasons why mainly young men join gangs in countries like El Salvador."
Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America organization, said only the right has offered short-term security solutions that will make voters "feel safer in six months" even if they have to "sacrifice democracy and human rights." He said, "It's absolutely what you're supposed to be doing, but people's patience runs out. So, there come the Bukeles of the world saying, 'You want to feel better? We got this.'"
Eduardo Moncada, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, said, "The thinking is often, 'democracy hasn't been able to keep me and my family safe, so maybe democracy is part of the problem.'"
Gangs are blamed for much of the violence that began soaring in Ecuador during the COVID-19 pandemic, as cartels from Mexico, Colombia and the Balkans expanded their operations and hired locals, setting off a deadly fight over drug-trafficking routes. Their territorial disputes include prisons, where hundreds of inmates have been killed since 2021.
Why This Matters:
The region's political transformation reflects voters' fundamental demand for personal security and the protection of property—core responsibilities of any functional government. When progressive administrations failed to address escalating crime, citizens exercised their democratic right to seek alternatives. The challenge now facing conservative leaders is translating campaign promises into measurable results. Kast's early struggles demonstrate that effective governance requires more than rhetoric: it demands institutional capacity, resource allocation, and sustainable strategies that balance security with fiscal responsibility. The fivefold increase in extortion in Peru and the 31% spike in Ecuadorian killings represent not just statistics but real threats to economic activity, investment, and the daily lives of law-abiding citizens. Whether these newly elected leaders can deliver on their mandates without excessive government overreach will determine both their political futures and the region's broader trajectory on security, migration policy, and the proper role of state power.