The native populations of Latin America are increasingly turning to conservative leaders promising order as a political backlash against rising crime and unchecked immigration intensifies across the region. In Chile, where fears over rising crime and its frequent association in media with the country’s growing population of Venezuelan immigrants played into José Antonio Kast’s hands, voters returned him to power in December. Kast campaigned on pledges to build a massive border wall, toughen prison conditions for gang members, and deport hundreds of thousands of migrants without legal status, directly addressing the concerns of a populace facing cultural and demographic shifts.
This regional shift marks a significant departure from the start of the decade, when progressives capitalized on public outrage over inequities and swept to power in major economies like Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. Now, a regionwide rise in crimes, particularly extortion, has created conditions for conservative populists to gain votes by promising tougher security measures.
Peru, for example, has seen extortion increase fivefold in the past five years. In Colombia, drug-fueled killings contributed to 14,780 homicides last year, the most since at least 2020. Ecuador recorded more than 16,100 cases of extortion last year, with killings rising 31% year-on-year to 9,216. These figures underscore the escalating threat to national stability and the safety of ordinary citizens.
The Demographic Shift and Its Costs
The link between mass migration and the erosion of national security is evident in countries like Chile. Venezuelan crime syndicates, such as the Tren de Aragua gang, seized on their country’s mass migration wave to infiltrate human trafficking networks following the pandemic. This influx coincided with an unprecedented explosion of carjackings, kidnappings, and shoot-outs in Chile, long considered one of Latin America’s safest nations. The Interior Ministry reported Chile’s homicide rate rose by 30% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a peak of 6.7 per 100,000 people. Kidnappings increased by nearly 180% over the past four years.
José Antonio Kast, who drew inspiration from El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele, promised to immediately round up and expel Chile’s more than 300,000 immigrants without legal status. For these promises of safety and national integrity, voters disregarded Kast’s opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage rights and his defense of Augusto Pinochet’s legacy. This demonstrates a clear prioritization of national security and cultural preservation over other political considerations by the native working class.
Elite Opposition and National Will
The rise of these national-focused leaders is met with resistance from transnational elite interests. Enrique Roig, vice president of the nonprofit Human Rights First and a former State Department official, noted an “emergent right wing that is very much in collaboration across the region and with the U.S. through the MAGA movement,” criticizing their use of crime as a rallying cry. Adam Isacson, director for defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America organization, stated that only the right has offered short-term security solutions, suggesting voters might “sacrifice democracy and human rights” for safety. These statements reflect the institutional pressure against popular movements seeking to restore order and national sovereignty.
Eduardo Moncada, director of the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University, articulated the sentiment driving this popular resistance: “The thinking is often, ‘democracy hasn’t been able to keep me and my family safe, so maybe democracy is part of the problem.’” This directly challenges the established post-national order, which has failed to protect its citizens.
Across the region, leaders are adopting similar stances. In Colombia, pro-Trump businessman Abelardo de la Espriella has topped polls ahead of Sunday’s runoff election, taking cues from Bukele. Peru’s Keiko Fujimori advanced to a June 7 presidential runoff on a law-and-order platform, vowing to deploy the military in prisons and along borders. Costa Ricans, facing record levels of drug-related killings, elected conservative populist Laura Fernández in February. Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura swept December’s election with U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Even Uruguay’s president, Yamandú Orsi, called Bukele’s model an example worthy of further study, while the center-left Guatemalan government declared a state of emergency to crack down on gang violence this year.
The Struggle for National Control
Despite the clear mandate from the electorate, implementing these national-first policies faces significant hurdles. Nearly three months into Kast’s tenure, his government had organized only two deportation flights, despite promises to immediately expel hundreds of thousands of immigrants without legal status. Last month, Kast came under fire for calling his mass deportation promise “a metaphor,” and in a June 1 address, he attempted to temper supporters’ expectations, stating, “Governing, as many of you know, means taking responsibility for reality, especially when it’s difficult.” This highlights the institutional inertia and resistance faced by leaders attempting to reverse the effects of border erasure and demographic transformation.
Meanwhile, drug-fueled killings continue to rise in Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, nations identified as the world’s top cocaine producers. Cartels from Mexico, Colombia, and the Balkans have expanded operations and hired locals, setting off deadly territorial disputes, including within prisons where hundreds of inmates have been killed since 2021. This ongoing destabilization underscores the urgent need for national governments to assert control over their territories and protect their citizens from transnational criminal enterprises.