Brazil’s Ibovespa closed at 171,907 points, up 0.51%, while Petrobras fell 2.79% and the index stayed about 13.5% below its 52-week high of 198,657. The numbers moved up. The people underneath the numbers still live with inflation, currency swings, and the decisions made far above them.
Who Gets the Gains
Argentina’s Merval rose 2.81% to 2,995,129 points, Chile’s IPSA gained 1.76% to 11,537.98, Colombia’s COLCAP advanced 2.09% to 2,510.72, and Mexico’s IPC edged up 0.06% to 65,770.85. Peru’s BVL Perú was the only laggard among the main regional markets, down 0.17% to 60,222.25. The regional board also showed the dollar at 5.16 reais, 17.06 pesos in Mexico, 913.98 pesos in Chile, 3,140 pesos in Colombia, 1,493 pesos in Argentina, 3.36 soles in Peru, 40.27 pesos in Uruguay, 5,939 guaraníes in Paraguay, 11.64 bolivianos in Bolivia, 58.34 pesos in the Dominican Republic and 445.92 colones in Costa Rica.
Brazil’s Ibovespa kept climbing for a fourth straight session, but the buying was selective. Vale led the advance, while Petrobras fell 2.79%. The Bovespa ETF BOVA11 drew R$642 million in turnover, and foreign flows were also visible in Vale and Petrobras, which together drew roughly R$4.3 billion in one session. Capital moved where it wanted. Everyone else watched.
What the Central Banks Leave Behind
The broader global backdrop stayed cautious. US stocks finished mixed on Monday, with the S&P 500 down 0.28% to 7,653, the Dow up 0.26% to 53,417 and the Nasdaq down 0.76% to 25,980. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.701%, down 0.74%, while gold jumped 1.04% to $4,662.68 an ounce and the VIX rose 4.76% to 15.85. The dollar index was near 98.7, close to its lowest since mid-May, and that softer dollar has been a tailwind for commodities.
The global economy briefing said the softer long end of the US yield curve could help carry currencies such as the Brazilian real, but that higher long-end yields still raise the hurdle for aggressive Fed cuts. It said markets still price further cuts, but the balance has shifted away from the most aggressive easing packages. It also said resilient US growth and sticky core PCE near 3.3% year-on-year remain headwinds for dovish bets. The apparatus keeps talking in the language of rates, yields, and “balance.” The costs land elsewhere.
Brazil’s IPCA mid-month inflation reading is due Wednesday. The briefing said local futures now price room for more cuts after the August Copom meeting kept the door open, with the central bank’s Focus survey seeing the Selic ending 2026 at 13.75%, one cut below the current 14.00%. It also said Wednesday’s IPCA mid-month CPI and consumer confidence, US PCE, durable goods and personal spending, and a Treasury 5-year auction are among the key events this week.
Who Pays in Each Market
Chile’s rally was led by domestic-facing consumer, retail and financial names rather than pure copper plays. Cencosud jumped 3.3%, Falabella added 1.7%, Banco de Chile rose 2.3%, Concha y Toro gained 4.5% and Parque Arauco fell 1.7%. SQM-B was the most-traded local name with US$33 million in turnover and rose 0.8%. The Chilean peso firmed, with the US dollar slipping 0.24% to 912.82 pesos, still 5.9% below its 52-week peak. Chile’s annual inflation stood at 3.5% in July, with the monthly index up 0.1%, and the central bank held its policy rate at 4.5% by unanimous vote on 28 July, its second straight hold.
In Colombia, the COLCAP rose 2.09% to 2,511 points, one of the largest single-session gains in months. The peso weakened 0.48% to 3,057 per dollar. The rally came as local media highlighted government support of 1.5 trillion pesos for thermal power plants and fresh oilfield activity in Meta department. India’s state oil company reactivated the Mariposa-1X well in the CPO-5 block, in Cabuyaro, Meta, recovering 1,205 barrels per day of light crude after a two-year shutdown. Grupo Sura ordinary shares will join the FTSE GEIS index in September. The live board showed COLCAP at 2,510.72, USD/COP at 3,140, Brent at 88.88, WTI at 83.11, Ecopetrol at 16.92, Bancolombia at 95.87, Grupo Aval at 5.40, Tecnoglass at 42.30, Credicorp at 375.17 and Buenaventura at 34.45.
In Argentina, the Merval climbed 2.81% to 2,995,129 points. The peso, shown in the article as the wholesale dollar, closed at a record 1,510 pesos, up 0.67% on the day. Country risk fell for a second straight session to 509 points. Banks led, with Grupo Galicia up 5.0%, Banco Macro up 5.4%, BBVA Argentina up 5.1% and Supervielle up 8.3%. Investors were positioning ahead of a Treasury auction that must refinance roughly 14 trillion pesos, about US$9.3 billion, in maturities. The live board showed YPF at 7,810, GGAL at 6,980, Pampa at 5,115, TXAR at 747.50, Aluar at 938.00, TGS at 8,870, CEPU at 2,156, Mirgor at 1,650, COME at 40.93, Loma Negra at 3,130, BYMA at 275.00, Telecom Argentina at 4,233, Globant at 38.10 and MercadoLibre at 1,870.
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC added 0.06% to close at 65,770.85 points, a fourth straight gain. The peso slipped 0.23% against the US dollar, ending at 16.9647 per dollar after domestic inflation quickened to 3.26% in the first half of August. Core inflation eased to 3.93% from 3.95%. The rise in inflation was driven by farm produce, including onions, serrano peppers and eggs. Femsa rose 1.71%, Coca-Cola Femsa climbed 2.9%, Gentera led index members at 3.15%, while airport operator GAP dropped 2.47% and miner Peñoles lost 1.97%. The live board showed WALMEX at 48.07, GMEXICO at 223.28, FEMSA at 201.19, CEMEX at 19.32, GFNORTE at 193.98, BIMBO at 60.98, TELEVISA at 9.71, AMX at 19.80, GAP at 366.23, ASUR at 275.04, OMA at 233.50, KOF at 188.04, GRUMA at 252.90 and KIMBER at 39.74.
The regional pieces said Argentina’s Merval and Colombia’s COLCAP led the prior session, while Chile’s IPSA and Brazil’s Ibovespa also posted gains. Mexico’s move was described as solid but unspectacular, and Peru was the only laggard among the main regional markets. Oil steadied after a heavy fall, with Brent near US$92.08 a barrel and WTI around US$85.09. The market backdrop remained tied to inflation, yields, oil and the dollar, with Wednesday’s Brazil IPCA print and US PCE data set to shape the next move.