Brazil’s manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 in September, while Mexico’s survey reading rose to 50.3, according to a regional market briefing dated October 2, 2026. A firmer US dollar raised the local-currency cost of foreign debt and weighed on imported inflation. The figures point to sharply different factory readings across the region, while currencies and bonds remain exposed to movements beyond national control.
Currencies and External Pressure
The briefing said the dollar was a headwind for regional currencies and local-currency bonds. Its close-of-session table, citing RT close data for October 1, listed USD/BRL at 5.2176, up 0.84%; USD/MXN at 18.2965, up 1.26%; and USD/CLP at 986.18, up 1.40%. USD/COP fell 0.61%, while USD/ARS was down 0.01%.
A separate live cross-market board dated October 2 at 06:45 showed different currency quotes: USD/BRL at 5.16, USD/MXN at 17.06 and USD/CLP at 913.98. It also listed USD/COP at 3,140, USD/ARS at 1,493 and USD/PEN at 3.36. The board reported increases in USD/UYU, USD/PYG, USD/DOP and USD/CRC, and declines in USD/MXN, USD/PEN and USD/BOB.
Higher oil prices supported exporters in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, the briefing said. It also said higher oil supported companies including Petrobras, Ecopetrol and Pemex, while higher gold and silver supported mining in Peru and Mexico. A firm dollar raises the local-currency cost of foreign debt and weighs on imported inflation.
Mexico's Fiscal and Trade Exposure
Mexico’s INEGI business confidence index edged up to 48.4 in September from 48.3, but remained below 50 for its 19th consecutive month. The finance ministry, SHCP, reported a January-to-August fiscal deficit of MXN 739 billion, about US$40 billion at 18.30 pesos per dollar, compared with MXN 1.015 trillion programmed.
The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives’ separate Manufacturing Indicator reached 50.0 in September, up from 49.9 in August. IMEF called the results “mixed signals” and said activity had stopped deteriorating as quickly, but the evidence wasn’t sufficient to confirm a broad recovery. Its non-manufacturing indicator, covering services and commerce, rose to 49.2 and remained below 50.
IMEF identified the review of the USMCA, the North American trade agreement, as Mexico’s main exposure. It said computer-equipment exports grew 200% through July, while most inputs came from Asia and local value added was low. IMEF also reported that public construction spending fell 13% from June to July. It said rigid spending and rising pension costs increased the chance of a sovereign credit-rating cut.
Uneven Production and Market Returns
Brazil’s S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell from 46.3 to 44.8, its weakest reading since April 2023. Mexico’s S&P Global PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.3. Colombia’s Davivienda manufacturing PMI increased to 54.6 from 54.3.
Chile’s Imacec economic activity index fell 1.0% year on year in August after a 1.5% decline in July, as copper mining dropped 17.4%. Peru’s INEI reported Lima annual inflation of 4.55% in September, above the central bank’s target range of 1% to 3%.
The market briefing reported Brazil’s Ibovespa up 0.46% on the session, while Mexico’s IPC fell 0.97%, Chile’s IPSA slipped 0.56% and Argentina’s Merval dropped 2.15%. Brazil’s rise was a local rebound, not a regional signal, the briefing said. A softer US jobs reading could ease pressure from the dollar; a stronger one could increase it.