A Quaest runoff poll released Monday showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 42% each, three days before Brazil's first-round vote on Sunday, 4 October. Markets didn't flinch. The Ibovespa closed Wednesday up 1.37% at 186,340 points, while the real firmed 0.53% to 5.1743 per U.S. dollar.
Datafolha's 24 September poll, seven days before the article date, put Lula at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45%, within the margin of error. If needed, voters will return for a runoff on 25 October.
Brazil's Close Race
Courts have drawn the campaign's focus in its final week. On Wednesday, the Superior Electoral Court began hearing a case over false posts claiming Flávio Bolsonaro would strip Our Lady of Aparecida, Brazil's patron saint, of her title. A majority formed in favor of keeping offline posts that link him or his family directly to the claim. Under the electoral code, voters can't be arrested from Tuesday until 17:00 on 6 October unless they're caught in the act.
The roundup also flagged regional unease over Washington's visa restrictions on officials and relatives in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, as well as discussion of the U.S.-backed Shield of the Americas.
Where Reform Runs and Where Costs Mount
The sharpest contrast is between Argentina and its neighbors. Argentina's Supreme Court cleared the way on Tuesday for Javier Milei's decree lifting limits on foreign ownership of rural land. Milei traveled to Paris for an investment week, where he had an OECD speech and a Thursday meeting with President Emmanuel Macron. Mining exports topped US$6 billion in eight months, helped by lithium's 190% jump. The current account recorded a US$2.21 billion surplus in the second quarter, and the Merval rose 1.32% on Wednesday.
Households face a less comfortable picture. Ámbito reported that Milei's image recovery is slowing as wages, utility bills and household debt weigh on people. Pensions rose 1.66% for October. The central bank's ICL index, which adjusts rents every three months, rose 6.72%. INDEC estimated residents held US$268.8 billion in foreign cash and deposits outside Argentina's banks.
Chile's figures tell a different story. The statistics office INE reported unemployment at 9.6% in June–August, its highest level since 2021. Industrial production fell 5.7% in August, while copper output dropped 12.8% to its lowest point in about 15 years. The head of shipping line CSAV said labour reforms cost US$4 billion. At Antofagasta Minerals' Centinela mine, unions voted 98.73% for a strike over equal pay. President José Antonio Kast sent Congress a bill extending a monthly fuel bonus of 100,000 pesos, about US$103, for taxis, shared taxis and school transport until December.
Colombia's central bank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on Wednesday, defying expectations of a hold. The vote was 4–2–1. Unemployment rose to 9.4% in August, against an 8.1% forecast; DANE called it the highest level in 20 months. The government requested an IMF technical mission and is discussing possible financing. The fiscal-rule committee, Carf, projected a 2026 deficit of 7.8% of GDP, exceeding the government's 7.2%. Over the past four years, the trucking association counted 2,841 road blockades, with an estimated cost of about 12.7 trillion pesos, or US$3.8 billion.
Mexico's Trade Strength
Mexico recorded the region's strongest trade figure. INEGI data showed exports climbed 40.4% in August to about US$78 billion, while shipments of electrical and electronic equipment more than doubled. Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja said Mexico needn't mechanically follow the Federal Reserve; the policy rate stands at 6.50%. Still, the IPC fell 1.38% to 64,214 points on Wednesday, and the peso weakened 0.12% to 18.07 per dollar.
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned 21 people and 25 entities linked to the Sinaloa Cartel on Tuesday, including Carlos Torres Torres, the ex-husband of Baja California Governor Marina del Pilar Ávila. Hurricane Polo made landfall twice, first in Baja California Sur and then in Sonora, flooding parts of Puerto San Carlos and closing schools in Sonora. No deaths were reported in Baja California Sur.
Why This Matters:
This week's figures show policy choices playing out differently across the region. Argentina is opening land ownership to foreign capital and posting export and current-account gains, though households still feel the squeeze. Chile and Colombia report rising unemployment; Colombia's deficit is projected above its own target as the government seeks IMF help. Chile's CSAV chief puts labour reform costs at US$4 billion. Mexico's export surge suggests trade ties can drive growth even as security pressure from Washington continues. For investors and voters in Brazil, a 42%-42% race raises the stakes on Sunday. Fiscal discipline, labour costs and capital access keep surfacing in the numbers.