Latino Voters Shift as Prices and Cuts Bite

Mayumi Castro Fernandez, an aircraft worker who voted for Donald Trump two years ago, spent Friday canvassing a Miami neighborhood for the Democrat challenging an incumbent House Republican. She joined her union, which has backed the Democrat. “All the prices go up — the gas, the food, the health insurance,” she said. By month’s end, families don’t “have all the money we need.”

Castro Fernandez said she’d changed her mind and added: “They can change it too.” Her canvassing comes as polls show Latino voters favoring Democratic control of Congress. Voters interviewed in the report cited rising prices, healthcare funding cuts and immigration enforcement as reasons they’re dissatisfied with Republicans.

The nation’s 36 million Latino voters have become a major group of swing voters. Their choices could affect contests in Texas and Florida, as well as California, Arizona, Colorado and Georgia, before the November 3 midterms.

Prices and Political Realignment

An NBC News/Telemundo poll released this month found Latino voters preferred Democratic control of Congress over Republican control by 24 points, 59% to 35%. In the same poll, 27% approved of Donald Trump's overall job performance, while 20% approved of his handling of the cost of living.

Exit polls in 2024 found Trump received 46% of the Latino vote, compared with 51% for Democrat Kamala Harris. Latinos, traditionally Democratic-leaning in most of the country, swung heavily toward Trump in that election. The shift fueled Republican hopes for a lasting political realignment, particularly across the growing South.

Economic frustration that helped Trump win now contributes to dissatisfaction with Republicans, who fully control the federal government. Republican strategist Mike Madrid said Latino voters were moving away from Republicans for the same reason they moved away from Democrats two years ago. He described a “dealignment,” with large shares of Latino voters holding no party loyalty and voting against what they see as “failed government.”

“Neither party is providing a compelling vision or results-oriented policy for working-class people,” Madrid said. “We are in many ways witnessing an emergent Latino populism that is anti-establishment — meaning both parties.”

Tory Gavito, a Democratic strategist who leads the progressive donor network Way to Win, said her group's research found Latino voters had believed Trump's 2024 pledge to “shake things up.” They were willing to overlook his harsh immigration rhetoric because they didn’t see themselves among the “bad hombres” he would target, she said. Now, Gavito said, “they don't see prices getting lowered, they don't see an increase in jobs, and many mixed-status families are living in fear.”

Enforcement, Jobs and Healthcare

In interviews, Latino voters cited gas and food prices, GOP healthcare funding cuts and Trump's aggressive mass deportation efforts as reasons for dissatisfaction with his second term. Irma González, a restaurant owner in McAllen, Texas, said the raids were affecting economic activity.

“Immigration policy is very tough right now. That is precisely why the economy is so weak, with the raids and all that,” González said. “Many people simply don't want to go out.” James Talarico, the Democratic state representative running against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, visited her shop, where she makes homemade tortillas. González said Talarico “genuinely wants to help us.” She added: “I hope he wins and does something good — something better.”

In Florida, Venezuelan American attorney Karina Castillo said she voted for Trump in 2024 partly because she thought he would bring more order to immigration. She now regrets her vote and believes his policy has gone too far. Castillo said the administration jailed or deported “a lot of people” who were “doing things right,” including people waiting for the legal immigration process.

Many Venezuelans are angry that Trump ended temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals last year. Castillo also expressed concern about attempts to revoke birthright citizenship and Trump's support for Venezuela's acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, who was vice president to the ousted President Nicolás Maduro.

Seats, Districts and Enforcement Votes

In Texas, a Senate race once viewed as a long shot has become a nail-biter. Democrats are targeting traditionally Republican states as they seek a net gain of four seats to claim a majority. Latino support could also help Democrats retain House seats Republicans redrew in a mid-decade redistricting battle last year. Those districts, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley, were drawn based on Trump's strong 2024 performance.

If South Texas Latino voters now lean toward Democrats, Republicans' chances of ousting 28th District Rep. Henry Cuellar and 34th District Rep. Vicente Gonzalez could evaporate. Democrat Bobby Pulido could also oust Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz of the 15th District.

In Florida's 27th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar faces Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Salazar won the overwhelmingly Latino district by nearly 21 percentage points in 2024. Last month, she told Trump that “some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” adding that Hispanics who helped elect him “feel betrayed today.”

Rodriguez said Salazar voted to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and criticized her past remarks defending conditions at the now-closed Florida detention facility Alligator Alcatraz. “I think voters in this district are smart enough to see through this and see this as crocodile tears,” he said. Rodriguez said voters lacked money for rent and groceries, and that gas prices and immigration policy were affecting the district.

Salazar described the Democratic Party as socialist at a Miami steakhouse, saying “this ideology has nothing to do with us or with this nation.” Rodriguez rejected that label, saying, “There's nothing socialist about me. Nothing communist. I am the product of capitalism and free enterprise.”