Texas Senate Race Shows Big Donors’ Grip on Politics

More than $534 million has flowed into the Texas Senate race this election cycle, while outside groups have spent nearly $300 million on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton alone. The contest between Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is set for Tuesday, with millions of Texans already voting inside a system where a handful of wealthy donors can pour extraordinary sums into deciding who gets heard.

Decision Desk HQ’s average of Hispanic polling data shows Talarico leading Paxton by more than 20 points among Hispanic voters statewide, a swing of roughly 30 points toward Democrats compared with 2024. A University of Houston poll found Talarico ahead 52% to 41% among Latino voters statewide. In rural areas, Paxton led 56% to 24%.

NewsNation reported that voters named no single issue as driving the Latino vote. Andrew Sanchez, a Paxton supporter, said he backed the Republican because Paxton supports families and faith. “Those are the things that we need to continue supporting,” Sanchez said, citing “family values, faith values.”

Eva Lopez, a Talarico supporter, said young Hispanic voters could decide the race. “As a young Hispanic voter and woman, it's important to really voice your opinion,” she said, adding that she hopes young Hispanic voters will help push the race over the line.

Votes Against a Flood of Money

Nearly 7.5 million Texans have already cast ballots, according to NewsNation. The Texas secretary of state's office separately reported that nearly 4.5 million Texans voted in the first week of early voting alone. Paxton was expected in Tyler, while Talarico was campaigning in San Antonio.

Talarico has raised $146 million, compared with Paxton’s roughly $22 million. But Paxton has benefited from nearly $300 million in outside spending on his behalf, against about $80 million for Talarico. MAGA Inc, a super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump, provided $37 million for Paxton.

More than $150 million of Elon Musk's donations has gone to boost Paxton, in an effort to help Republicans maintain their Senate majority. The contribution was described as one of the largest political donations in U.S. history. Musk gave $446 million during the midterm cycle, nearly as much as the top six donors on either side of the aisle combined.

A Costly Contest, A Narrow Choice

Nearly every major poll suggests Talarico has a slim lead. CNN projected in late October that he had 49% support to Paxton’s 43%. A Democrat has not won statewide office in Texas since 1994, and Talarico aims to break the party’s losing streak. The ballot offers a choice between candidates, while campaign cash and outside groups set the terms of the contest around them.

The Texas race is projected to break spending records for a U.S. Senate race. AdImpact estimated that $11.21 billion had been spent on advertisements and reservations as of October 26, compared with $3.2 billion for the 2024 presidential election season. Senate contests in Texas, Ohio and Michigan ranked among the costliest, with toss-up seats among the most expensive individual races.

Republicans had raised and spent more than Democrats during the midterm cycle. Federal Election Commission filings showed Republicans had raised more than Democrats since the start of 2025. As of October 14, the Republican National Committee had received about $341 million and paid out roughly $303 million; the Democratic National Committee raised nearly $252.3 million and spent about $252.8 million.

A Politico analysis found Republicans were more reliant on large donors such as Musk as their small-dollar donor base grew smaller. Most donations from everyday people, the analysis found, went directly to Trump, not candidates. Polls projected Democrats would likely take back the U.S. House and were favored to control the U.S. Senate, but it remained unclear whether Republican fundraising and spending would counter Democratic enthusiasm.

The top donors overwhelmingly backed Republicans: Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk gave $446 million; Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein donated about $150 million; and Jeff Yass and his wife, Janice, contributed $110 million to right-wing causes during the midterm cycle. On the left, George Soros gave about $102 million to left-leaning candidates, Michael Bloomberg pledged $84.2 million to Democrats, with an additional $36 million added on Friday, and Reid Hoffman and Michelle Yee gave about $41.2 million. Candidates and groups will keep asking voters for ballots. The largest donors have already supplied the megaphones.