Latino Voters Feel the Cost of Trump's Power

Chris Martinez returned his vehicle to the lender after high gas prices made it too expensive to keep. He switched to a discount grocer after voting for Donald Trump, expecting a thriving economy and no wars.

“He's doing nothing for us, to benefit us,” said Martinez, a 28-year-old maintenance technician in Casa Grande, Arizona. “And it kind of sucks because I got duped and I feel like a dummy.” He said the United States has spent months in conflict with Iran.

The cost lands at home

Martinez said he has moved back toward the middle politically and doesn't know whether he'll vote in the midterms. His account shows what presidential promises can cost people struggling to pay for fuel and food, while the fight over power in Washington depends on whether voters return to the ballot box.

Latinos shifted toward Trump in 2024, helping return him to the White House with a Republican-controlled Congress. Many are now souring on Trump and his party, a change that could affect the balance of power in Washington in the Nov. 3 elections. Democrats are counting on disaffected Trump supporters in heavily Latino districts in Arizona, Colorado and Texas, but it's unclear whether they've persuaded voters with little allegiance to either party.

Casa Grande, a town of 70,000 between Phoenix and Tucson, sits near the northern tip of Arizona's 6th Congressional District, one of the country's most closely matched districts. Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term. Two years ago, he won by 2.5 percentage points; Trump won the district by less than 1 point.

Ciscomani has tried to distance himself subtly from Trump without directly criticizing the president or his policies. In an advertisement, Ciscomani, born in Mexico and brought to the United States as a child, presents himself as independent and bipartisan: “I'm not a rubber stamp for anyone.”

Pocketbook politics, party limits

Economic pressure shows up in polling, too. About 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about food and grocery costs during the 2024 campaign, slightly more than about two-thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Trump had a clear advantage among those voters at the time.

An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October found about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency, while more than 7 in 10 disapprove of his performance on the economy. In a September AP-NORC poll, Hispanic voters were more concerned than voters overall about grocery and housing costs; 70% blamed Trump's policies rather than factors outside his control for higher prices.

Political consultant Mike Madrid described a possible shift away from Republicans as anti-Trump sentiment, not support for Democrats. He called it “dealignment,” with voters rejecting strong ties to both parties because neither effectively addresses working-class economic concerns.

“The Latino electorate is moving from a racial-and-ethnic voting bloc to an economic, pocketbook, class-based voter,” Madrid said. “And the party that figures that out first is the party that will probably dominate for the next generation.” In the October poll, Hispanic voters were about evenly split in their view of the Democratic Party; 55% had an unfavorable view of the Republican Party and 38% a favorable one.

Organizing inside the electoral machine

In Denver, union carpenters canvassed for Democratic state lawmaker Manny Rutinel, who is challenging Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in Colorado's 8th Congressional District. Rutinel showed the crowd a scar from when he sold his blood more than 100 times to make ends meet. “I'm the son of a single mom. She came to America to give me the American Dream. We worked hard for this country,” he said.

Latinos are the district's largest ethnic group, and both candidates are Hispanic. Evans won by less than 1 percentage point, while Trump won by 2 points. Rutinel has focused on the economy since winning the nomination. “The folks around the district feel they've been lied to and betrayed,” he said.

In Edinburg, Texas, Thomas Centrella said he has grown disillusioned with politics and fast-forwards through campaign ads. He tends to vote Republican but might skip elections or become independent. Priscilla Olivarez, a public education teacher who often uses her own money for classroom needs, said costs rise faster than wages.

“It's a choice between representatives,” Olivarez said. “I stand independent right now because I don't agree with either side right now.” The election offers a choice of representatives; these voters' accounts describe the bills and classroom expenses waiting either way.