Latino Voters Sour on Trump as House Seats Tighten

Chris Martinez says high gas prices forced him to return a vehicle to its lender and switch to a discount grocer, complicating the economic case that led him to vote for Donald Trump. The 28-year-old maintenance technician in Casa Grande, Arizona, also said the United States has spent months in conflict with Iran. “He's doing nothing for us, to benefit us,” Martinez said. “And it kind of sucks because I got duped and I feel like a dummy.”

Martinez said he has moved back toward the political middle and isn't sure whether he'll vote in the midterms. His account comes as Latino voters who shifted toward Trump in 2024 weigh the economy and the parties ahead of the Nov. 3 elections, with closely contested House races in Arizona, Colorado and Texas.

Economic concerns reshape the contest

Casa Grande, a town of 70,000 between Phoenix and Tucson, lies largely at the northern tip of Arizona's 6th Congressional District. Republican Juan Ciscomani is seeking a third term. Two years ago, he won by 2.5 percentage points, while Trump won the district by less than 1 point.

Ciscomani has subtly distanced himself from Trump without directly criticizing the president or his policies. Born in Mexico and brought to the United States as a child, Ciscomani has discussed his immigrant story and presents himself as independent and bipartisan. “I'm not a rubber stamp for anyone,” he says in an advertisement.

Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza, a former Marine, has emphasized her upbringing as the daughter of immigrant farmworkers who worked fields near Casa Grande. “People trust you if they know that you came from the community and understand their way of life,” she said in an interview earlier this year.

Polling reflects those economic concerns. During the 2024 campaign, about 7 in 10 Hispanic voters were “very concerned” about food and grocery costs, slightly more than about two-thirds of voters overall, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide. Trump had a clear advantage among voters concerned about those costs.

An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll from October found about 6 in 10 Hispanic voters disapprove of Trump's handling of the presidency, while more than 7 in 10 disapprove of his performance on the economy. A separate AP-NORC poll conducted in September found Hispanic voters more concerned than voters overall about grocery and housing costs. Seventy percent blamed Trump's policies, rather than factors outside his control, for higher prices.

Districts where the vote may shift

Political consultant Mike Madrid said anti-Trump sentiment, not support for Democrats, would drive a potential Latino shift away from Republicans this year. Madrid, who wrote “The Latino Century” and co-hosts “The Latino Vote” podcast, described voters as undergoing “dealignment” because neither party effectively addresses working-class economic concerns. “The Latino electorate is moving from a racial-and-ethnic voting bloc to an economic, pocketbook, class-based voter,” he said. “And the party that figures that out first is the party that will probably dominate for the next generation.”

In Colorado's 8th Congressional District, Democratic state lawmaker Manny Rutinel is challenging Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. Latinos are the district's largest ethnic group, and both candidates are Hispanic. Evans won by less than 1 percentage point, while Trump won by 2 points.

Rutinel has focused on the economy since winning the nomination. “The folks around the district feel they've been lied to and betrayed,” he said. Evans, a former police lieutenant whose grandfather was a Mexican immigrant, has raised border security in his appeal to Hispanic voters. “Go ask any Hispanic in the district, do you think we should secure the border? Do you think we should get rid of the bad guys? Do you think we should help the good guys? They'll say yes,” Evans said.

Neither party has secured allegiance

In Texas' 15th Congressional District, which Trump carried by 18 percentage points and is now considered a top Election Day battleground, some voters described uncertainty or disillusionment. Thomas Centrella, 42, said he tends to vote Republican but might not in the future. “I feel like he was going in a good direction, but I think now that it's just gotten weird,” he said of Trump's first term. He said he might skip elections or become independent, though he doubts he would vote for a Democrat.

Priscilla Olivarez, a public education teacher who grew up a Democrat and voted Republican in the last presidential election, is undecided. She said rising costs outpace wages and that she often uses her own money for classroom needs. “I stand independent right now because I don't agree with either side right now,” she said.

Hispanic voters were about evenly split in their view of the Democratic Party in the October AP-NORC poll. Views of the Republican Party were more negative: 55% had an unfavorable view and 38% a favorable one. The polling and voter interviews describe economic frustration and weaker party attachment, not a settled movement toward either party.