Latvia’s 1.5 million eligible voters went to the polls on Saturday, October 3, to elect 100 members of the Saeima. Security fears and rising living costs shaped the campaign. The next parliament will come from 14 party lists, and parties need at least 5% of the vote to win seats. Polls suggested seven might clear that bar, while roughly one in five voters remained undecided.
The State’s Security Bill
Latvia has committed by law to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense. Reports said the government was allocating nearly that share, leaving less room for other spending. Most parties expected to enter parliament support maintaining elevated military spending and continued assistance to Kyiv. No party proposed a major change in Latvia’s alignment with the EU and NATO.
Voters must weigh security policy against low wages, a sluggish economy, pressure on the health system, rising costs and long-term population decline. Emigration and an ageing population remain persistent challenges. Those concerns featured prominently in the campaign in the least affluent of the three Baltic states. The arithmetic is plain: a legally set defense commitment takes room from other spending, while parties largely agree on keeping it in place.
NATO reinforced protection of Latvian airspace during the election. Germany sent four Eurofighter jets for about a week after Riga requested them. Latvia borders Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus and belongs to NATO and the European Union. The country regards Russia as its principal security threat, and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is seen as a direct threat to Latvian national security.
The Electoral Circus, Still Running
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, 47, of the centrist United List party, sought his own mandate after taking office in May, when a dispute over Ukrainian drones brought down the previous government. United List led pre-election polls but was expected to emerge weaker as populist parties gained ground. A multiparty coalition will almost certainly be needed. The ballot may shift the balance among parties, but the campaign offered no change to the basic foreign-policy alignment.
The SKDS institute put United List above 14%. Sovereign Power, led by Julija Stepanenko, polled above 9% and could become the second-largest party. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and further defense-spending increases, and focuses on domestic economic concerns. Most major parties have ruled out working with it. Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Šlesers, was described as a potentially more viable coalition partner. The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party that backs stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, polled at about 6%.
Latvia’s State Security Service said the previous week it had detected no significant or systematic efforts by Russia or others to influence the election in favor of any party or candidate, the LETA news agency reported. Concerns about possible sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and other hostile acts had grown across parts of Europe in recent months. The fear is part of the campaign. The security service’s assessment is on the record, too.
Voices at the Ballot Box
Jānis Artis Briedis, who voted in Riga, said: “What I want to see is just democracy in action, just people actually going to vote and voicing their opinions on who they want to govern the country for the next term.” Reinholds Pirags called it “a very decisive election.” He expected voters to choose parties making “nationally correct decisions” on defense and the economy. He expected a coalition that might be “not ideal” but would still be “OK.”
Voting patterns among the large Russian-speaking minority have shifted, too. Many voters who previously backed Harmony increasingly choose on economic and social issues as well as identity politics. Harmony lost parliamentary representation in 2022. Four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the election was not expected to shift Latvia from its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. Polls were expected to close at 1700 GMT, with partial results due Saturday evening and preliminary official results due Sunday. Lengthy coalition negotiations could follow. People cast their ballots. The coalition still gets built behind closed doors.