About 1.5 million Latvians were eligible to vote on Saturday, October 3, 2026, choosing 100 members of the single-chamber Saeima for a four-year term. Voters could pick from 14 parties in a proportional system. The country’s 11th parliamentary election since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 took place 35 years after that break.
The vote came under pressure from two directions: a hostile neighbour next door and household budgets that keep shrinking. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, 47, of the centrist United List party, sought his own mandate. He took office in May, about five months ago, after a dispute about Ukrainian drones brought down the previous government. His United List alliance led pre-election polls, but populist parties gained ground and the coalition was still expected to emerge weakened.
Cost of Living Meets Security
The campaign put economic strain front and centre. Rising living costs, low wages, a sluggish economy and pressure on the health system featured prominently, alongside long-term population decline. Emigration and an ageing population remain persistent challenges. Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic states.
Security costs add to those pressures. Latvia has committed by law to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense, leaving less room for other spending. Reports said the country was allocating nearly 5% of GDP to defense after sharply raising spending since Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Most parties expected to enter parliament backed keeping military spending high and continuing aid to Kyiv. No party proposed a major change to Latvia's alignment with the EU and NATO.
Populist movements, including Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, sought to channel public discontent. They pressed for a less stringent approach to Moscow and argued that complete economic decoupling from Russia was damaging.
A Fragmented Field
The SKDS institute put United List above 14% support. Led by Julija Stepanenko, the populist Sovereign Power party polled above 9% and could become the second-largest party. Critics call it pro-Russian. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defense spending, while stressing domestic economic concerns. Most major parties have ruled out cooperation with it. Businessman Ainars Šlesers leads Latvia First, which observers described as a potentially more viable coalition partner.
The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party that backs stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, polled at about 6%. Roughly one in five voters were undecided. Polls indicated that seven of the 14 lists might clear the 5% threshold. A multiparty coalition will almost certainly be needed to govern.
United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance make up the current governing coalition. Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority were also shifting. Many people who previously backed Harmony, which lost its parliamentary representation in 2022, increasingly chose on economic and social issues as well as identity politics.
Hybrid Threats on the Eastern Edge
Latvia borders Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus. Like Lithuania and Estonia, it belongs to NATO and the EU. The country regards Russia as its principal security threat. Concerns about Russian hybrid attacks—including sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation—had mounted across parts of Europe in recent months, and observers described Latvia as particularly exposed. NATO reinforced protection of Latvian airspace during the vote. At Riga's request, Germany deployed four Eurofighter jets for about a week.
The previous week, Latvia's State Security Service said it had detected no significant or systematic efforts by Russia or others to influence the election in favor of a party or candidate, the LETA news agency reported.
Voters in Riga spoke about what they wanted. “What I want to see is just democracy in action, just people actually going to vote and voicing their opinions on who they want to govern the country for the next term,” said Jānis Artis Briedis.
Reinholds Pirags said: “It's obviously a very decisive election, and I expect that we'll vote for parties that will be making nationally correct decisions for the defense and the economy, so I think the coalition will be maybe not ideal, but it will be still OK and we'll be moving in the right direction.”
Polls were expected to close at 1700 GMT. Partial results were due Saturday evening, followed by preliminary official results on Sunday. Lengthy and complex coalition talks will follow.
Why This Matters: Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Latvia's election was not expected to take the country off its pro-European, pro-Ukrainian course. But the campaign shows how a frontline EU state must carry security obligations while households face a cost-of-living squeeze. With defense spending set by law at 5% of GDP, wages low, health services under pressure and the population shrinking, the room for social investment is tight.
From a social democratic perspective, that makes the coalition's shape matter. Whether a fragmented parliament can deliver stronger social protections alongside steady support for Ukraine will test whether voters' economic discontent stays within the democratic mainstream. It will also test whether Europe's shared security commitments come with shared support for people living on its eastern edge.