Latvia, a NATO and EU frontline state that has written a 5%-of-GDP defense floor into law, elected a new parliament on Saturday, October 3, 2026. Security and the cost of living dominated the campaign. Around 1.5 million people were eligible to vote in the country's 11th parliamentary election since it left the Soviet Union in 1991, 35 years ago. They chose 100 members of the single-chamber Saeima for a four-year term from 14 parties under a proportional system.
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, 47, of the centrist United List party, sought his own mandate. He took office in May, about five months ago, after a dispute over Ukrainian drones brought down the previous government. His center-right, conservative United List alliance led the polls, but the coalition was expected to emerge weaker as populist parties gained ground. Parties need at least 5% of the vote to win seats. A multiparty coalition will almost certainly be needed to govern.
The Fiscal Picture
Latvia has committed by law to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense. That leaves less room for other spending. Reports said the country had sharply increased defense spending since Moscow's 2022 invasion and was allocating nearly 5% of GDP to the military. It is the least affluent of the three Baltic states, and economic issues featured prominently in the campaign. Voters cited rising living costs, low wages, a sluggish economy, pressure on the health system and long-term population decline. Emigration and an ageing population remain persistent challenges.
Most parties expected to enter parliament supported keeping military spending elevated and continuing assistance to Kyiv. No party proposed a major change in Latvia's foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO.
Security Dimension
Latvia borders Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus. It regards Russia as its principal security threat, and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine is seen as a direct danger to national security. Concerns about Russian hybrid attacks, including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and other non-conventional hostile acts, had mounted across parts of Europe in recent months. Latvia, on NATO's eastern edge, faced particular exposure.
NATO reinforced protection of Latvian airspace during the election. Germany deployed four Eurofighter jets for about a week at Riga's request. Latvia's State Security Service said the previous week that it had detected no significant or systematic efforts by Russia or others to influence the vote in favor of a party or candidate, the LETA news agency reported.
The Populist Challenge
The SKDS institute put United List above 14% support. The populist Sovereign Power party, led by Julija Stepanenko, polled above 9% and could become the second-largest party. Detractors criticize it as pro-Russian. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and further defense spending increases, and it has stressed domestic economic concerns. Most major parties have ruled out cooperating with it.
Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Šlesers, could serve as a more viable coalition partner. Populist movements, including Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, sought to draw on discontent with a less stringent approach to Moscow. They also argued that a complete economic decoupling from Russia was damaging. The pro-European social democratic party The Progressives, which backs stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, polled at about 6%. Roughly one in five voters remained undecided, and polls indicated that seven of the 14 lists might clear the threshold.
The current governing coalition consists of United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Voting patterns among Latvia's large Russian-speaking minority were also shifting. Many who previously backed Harmony increasingly chose on economic and social issues as well as identity politics. Harmony lost its parliamentary representation in 2022, four years ago.
Voters in Riga spoke in plain terms. “What I want to see is just democracy in action, just people actually going to vote and voicing their opinions on who they want to govern the country for the next term,” said Jānis Artis Briedis. Reinholds Pirags said: “It's obviously a very decisive election, and I expect that we'll vote for parties that will be making nationally correct decisions for the defense and the economy, so I think the coalition will be maybe not ideal, but it will be still OK and we'll be moving in the right direction.”
Polls were expected to close at 1700 GMT. Partial results were due Saturday evening and preliminary official results on Sunday. Coalition negotiations could drag on.
Why This Matters: Four years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the election shows what frontline defense costs a smaller, poorer EU member state. Latvia is meeting a legal 5%-of-GDP defense commitment while its voters report low wages, a sluggish economy and strained health services. The campaign suggests that governments can sustain security spending only if citizens also see their living standards addressed. The election wasn't expected to move Latvia from its pro-European, pro-Ukrainian course. A fragmented parliament could still slow coalition-building and tie spending priorities to populist parties' demands. Nationally accountable budgets, set by Riga rather than Brussels, remain where these trade-offs are decided. For other member states weighing their own defense commitments, the Latvian result tests whether security consensus survives economic discontent.