Latvians voted on Saturday, October 3, 2026, in a parliamentary election shaped by security concerns and rising living costs. The country borders Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus. During the vote, NATO reinforced Latvian airspace, sending four German Eurofighter jets for about a week at Riga’s request.
Around 1.5 million people could choose 100 members of the single-chamber Saeima for a four-year term. Fourteen parties competed under a proportional system, with a 5% threshold for seats. A multiparty coalition will almost certainly be needed to govern.
Security and the border
Latvia regards Russia as its principal security threat. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is seen as a direct threat to Latvian national security, and Latvia has been among Kyiv’s closest partners and supporters. Four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the election wasn’t expected to shift Latvia from its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.
Latvia belongs to NATO and the European Union, alongside its Baltic neighbors Lithuania and Estonia. Most parties expected to enter parliament backed maintaining elevated military spending and continuing assistance to Kyiv. No party proposed a major change in Latvia’s foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO.
Latvia has committed by law to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense, leaving less room for other spending. Reports said the country had sharply increased defense spending since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Kyiv and was allocating nearly 5% of GDP to defense.
In recent months, concerns about possible Russian hybrid attacks—including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and other non-conventional hostile acts—had mounted across parts of Europe. Latvia was described as particularly exposed on NATO’s eastern edge. But Latvia’s State Security Service said the previous week that it hadn’t detected significant or systematic efforts by Russia or others to influence the election in favor of a party or candidate, the LETA news agency reported.
Costs, wages and coalition arithmetic
Rising living costs, low wages, a sluggish economy, pressure on the health system and long-term population decline featured prominently in the campaign. Emigration and an ageing population also remained persistent challenges. Latvia is the least affluent of the three Baltic states.
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, 47, of the centrist United List party, sought his own mandate after taking office in May, when the previous government collapsed following a dispute over Ukrainian drones. United List led pre-election polls, but was expected to emerge weakened as populist parties gained ground.
The SKDS institute put United List above 14% support. Sovereign Power, led by Julija Stepanenko, polled above 9% and could become the second-largest party. Detractors criticized it as pro-Russian; the party opposed military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defense spending, while emphasizing domestic economic concerns. Most major parties ruled out working with it.
Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Šlesers, was described as a potentially more viable coalition partner. The Progressives, a pro-European social democratic party backing stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, polled at about 6%. Roughly one in five voters remained undecided, and polls indicated that seven of the 14 electoral lists might clear the threshold.
Populist movements, including Sovereign Power/Young Latvians Alliance and Latvia First, sought to draw on discontent and arguments that a complete economic decoupling from Russia was damaging. Voting patterns among Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority were also changing: many voters who had previously backed Harmony increasingly chose parties based on economic and social issues as well as identity politics. Harmony lost its parliamentary representation in 2022.
“What I want to see is just democracy in action, just people actually going to vote and voicing their opinions on who they want to govern the country for the next term,” said Jānis Artis Briedis, who voted in Riga. “It’s obviously a very decisive election, and I expect that we’ll vote for parties that will be making nationally correct decisions for the defense and the economy, so I think the coalition will be maybe not ideal, but it will be still OK and we’ll be moving in the right direction,” said Reinholds Pirags. Polls were expected to close at 1700 GMT. Partial results were expected Saturday evening, with preliminary official results due Sunday. Coalition negotiations could then prove lengthy and complex.