Latvia, which borders Russia and Moscow-allied Belarus, voted on Saturday in a parliamentary election shaped by security fears, rising living costs and debate over the country’s future support for Ukraine. Around 1.5 million people could choose 100 members of the Saeima, Latvia’s single-chamber parliament, from 14 parties. Concerns about Russian sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation have grown across parts of Europe.
Latvia belongs to NATO and the European Union, alongside its Baltic neighbors Lithuania and Estonia. It considers Russia its principal security threat, and Latvians see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a direct threat to their national security. Four years after the invasion began, few expected the election to shift Latvia from its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.
Security on the eastern edge
NATO reinforced protection of Latvian airspace during the election. At Riga’s request, Germany deployed four Eurofighter jets for about a week. Latvia sits on NATO’s eastern edge, where observers described the country as particularly exposed to potential hybrid attacks, including sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation.
The State Security Service said the previous week that it had detected no significant or systematic efforts by Russia or others to influence the election in favor of a party or candidate, according to the LETA news agency. Security concerns remained a major campaign issue. Most parties expected to enter parliament backed elevated military spending and continued assistance to Kyiv.
Latvia has legally committed to spending at least 5% of gross domestic product on defense, leaving less room for other spending. Reports said Latvia had sharply increased defense spending since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Kyiv and was allocating nearly 5% of GDP to defense. No party proposed a major change to Latvia’s foreign policy alignment with the EU and NATO.
Coalition choices and national policy
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, 47, of the centrist United List party, sought a mandate after taking office in May, when a dispute over Ukrainian drones brought down the previous government. The center-right, conservative United List alliance led pre-election polls, but observers expected it to emerge weaker as populist parties gained ground.
The SKDS institute put United List above 14% support. Sovereign Power, led by Julija Stepanenko, polled above 9% and could become the second-largest party. Critics have called it pro-Russian. The party opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defense spending, and it has emphasized domestic economic concerns. Most major parties have ruled out cooperation with it.
Latvia First, led by businessman Ainars Šlesers, appeared to offer a potentially more viable coalition partner. The pro-European social democratic party The Progressives, which backs stronger social protections and continued support for Ukraine, polled at about 6%. About one in five voters remained undecided, and polls indicated that seven of the 14 electoral lists might clear the 5% threshold needed to win seats. A multiparty coalition will almost certainly be needed to govern.
Population and cost pressures
Rising living costs, low wages, a sluggish economy and pressure on the health system figured prominently in the campaign. Latvia, the least affluent of the three Baltic states, also faces long-term population decline, emigration and an ageing population. The article reported no population total or migration-flow figure.
Voting patterns among Latvia’s large Russian-speaking minority were changing, too. Many voters who had previously backed Harmony increasingly made choices based on economic and social issues, as well as identity politics. Harmony lost its parliamentary representation in 2022.
Latvians were choosing representatives for a four-year term. Jānis Artis Briedis, who voted in Riga, said he wanted to see “democracy in action” and people voicing their opinions about who should govern. Reinholds Pirags said he expected voters to choose parties making “nationally correct decisions for the defense and the economy.” Polls were due to close at 1700 GMT, with partial results expected Saturday evening and preliminary official results on Sunday, followed by potentially lengthy and complex coalition negotiations.