Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List party won 35.4 percent of the vote and 42 seats in Latvia’s 100-seat parliament, preliminary results showed Sunday, after officials counted more than 99.9 percent of votes. The former Soviet republic has never recorded a larger post-independence result. It points to a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course, even as Russia, the cost of living and the state’s expanding defence role dominated the campaign.
A border made central
Kulbergs linked Latvia’s economic prospects directly to its place on Europe’s external border. “Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region,” he said. “That is the main task.” The border sat at the heart of his pitch, connecting security priorities with promised economic growth and a future for children.
Latvia has sharply increased defence spending in response to neighbouring Russia, which it views as its main security threat. Security remains central to politics in the fifth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Latvia joined NATO and the European Union in 2004. Most parties expected to enter parliament support high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv. The ballot hasn’t delivered a parliamentary majority for stepping away from that course.
Sovereign Power is the exception. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending. The party looked set to finish third after campaigning on the cost of living. Detractors have called it pro-Russian, and most major parties have ruled out working with it.
Promises meet daily costs
Kulbergs became prime minister in May. He said the result exceeded expectations and matched the lead shown in exit polls. “That means people truly want change,” he said, describing that change as “economic growth” and “a future for (Latvia’s) children.” Yet voters also faced rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline. Those pressures featured prominently in campaign debates.
The current coalition probably won’t survive in its existing form. One member looked set to lose its seats, while others performed worse than hoped. United List has a record tally, but the election hasn’t settled which parties will share power next or how they’ll address the pressures raised during the campaign.
Populists gain ground
Latvia First, a conservative party run by a property magnate often compared with US President Donald Trump, looked set to finish second. Populist parties gained support, including among Russian-speaking voters, who make up a third of Latvia’s population. According to the results, their changed voting patterns helped both parties.
For years, many Russian speakers rallied around Harmony, broadly seen as pro-Russia and once the country’s largest party. Its support collapsed in the election held shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the party lost parliamentary representation. Now the populist advance adds another force to a parliament where most parties expected to enter still back high military spending and aid to Kyiv. The ballot shifted the party balance. The border, defence build-up and cost-of-living squeeze remain on the table.