Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centre-right United List won Latvia's parliamentary election on Sunday, taking 35.4 percent of the vote, according to state television. Preliminary results, with more than 99.9 percent of ballots counted, give the party 42 seats in the 100-seat parliament. Local media reported that's a record in the post-independence history of the former Soviet republic.
The result points to a continued pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course. But it doesn't amount to a quiet mandate. Populist parties also performed strongly, and Kulbergs' pre-election coalition isn't expected to survive in its current form.
A Frontline State Votes
Security dominated the campaign. Latvia has belonged to NATO and the European Union since 2004, 22 years ago, and sees Russia as its main security threat. In response, it sharply increased defence spending. The vote came in the fifth year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Kulbergs, who became prime minister in May, said the result exceeded expectations and matched the lead shown in exit polls. "That means people truly want change," he said. He described that change as "economic growth" and "a future for (Latvia's) children."
He linked the economy directly to the country's geography. "Because we are the external border of Europe, we must have a strong economy... a strong border region," Kulbergs said. "That is the main task."
The Cost-of-Living Squeeze
The campaign wasn't just about Moscow. Rising living costs, low wages, a strained healthcare system and long-term population decline featured prominently in debates. Populist parties drew support over those concerns, including from Latvia's Russian-speaking minority.
Two populist forces stand out. Latvia First, a conservative party led by a property magnate often compared with US President Donald Trump, looked set to finish second. Sovereign Power, which campaigned on the cost of living, looked set to take third.
Sovereign Power stands apart on security. It opposes military aid to Ukraine and further increases in defence spending. Critics have called it pro-Russian, and most major parties have ruled out working with it. Most other parties expected to enter parliament back high military spending and continued aid to Kyiv.
Shifting Russian-Speaking Votes
Both populist parties appeared to benefit from changed voting patterns among Russian speakers, who make up a third of Latvia's population. For years, many rallied around Harmony, broadly seen as a pro-Russia party that once ranked as the country's largest. Its support collapsed in the last election, held shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and it lost its parliamentary representation.
A large bloc of voters now lacks its traditional political home. Both populist parties appear to have captured part of it.
Within Kulbergs' pre-election alliance, one member looked set to lose its seats. The others did worse than hoped. The prime minister now must rebuild a governing majority from a fragmented field.
Why This Matters: Latvia sits on the EU's external border with Russia, and voters have just backed a government committed to high defence spending and aid for Kyiv. The same ballot showed that pressure from the cost of living, low wages and a strained healthcare system can draw support toward populists, including among a third of the population that is Russian-speaking. From a centre-right perspective, the lesson for national governments is that security commitments need a credible economic base to keep public backing. Kulbergs himself linked the two. With most major parties ruling out Sovereign Power, coalition arithmetic will decide whether the pro-European course holds in practice and how much it costs taxpayers.